Pound Sterling, Blessed By Royal Charm?
(eToro Blog) Consumer confidence in the U.K. has been severely shaken, only a wedding of such pomp and ceremony as that of the future King of England can pull the nation out of the doldrums, even if only for the day. Whether the country's collective euphoria can translate into economic goodwill, however, is in question.
According to a recent survey which measures several key indicators of public confidence, i.e., personal financial outlook, likelihood of major purchases, the view of the U.K. economy in general, etc., the U.K. citizens are clearly not enthused over the future. The survey results show that the April's index of the surveyor's five factors fell to negative 31; in the last four decades, the index has only fallen that low twice. Analysts had been hopeful that the index would rebound from January's drop; as it stands, however, the index is lower by 10 points than it was just three months ago.
Earlier this week it was reported that GDP growth for the 1st quarter expanded by just 0.5%. Given the U.K. government's implementation of austerity measures in order to reduce the budget deficit, and in spite of ebbing consumer confidence, the U.K. central bank's growth expectations continue to be appropriately confident, if not somewhat diminished. Households surveyed profess worry and anger over the government's spending cuts, however. That sentiment is a cause for concern by the policymakers at the Bank of England, which is expected to consider an interest rate rise soon to blunt inflationary pressures.
It is hoped that the "Royal Wedding" will at least provide an uptick in retail sales, though some analysts expect that U.K. consumers will be less inclined to buy wedding-related memorabilia when other household necessities are so dear.
Nonetheless, wedding jubilation appears to have spread to the markets, with the FTSE gaining slightly and GBP higher for the week across the board. On the eToro trading floor, investor sentiment on the FTSE, is strongly in favor of buying by a ratio of 8 buyers to1 seller. Sentiment among eToro traders of GBP/USD, recently higher at 1.6656, in favor of buying by a unanimous ratio of 6 buyers to 0 sellers; analysts continue to forecast that Sterling is set for strong gains this year in spite of some vulnerability of the UK economy with 1.70 likely to be the next target in the bullish trajectory.
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