Predicting Australia vs India Test Matches: The Home Advantege
Part II of III
Taking cue from the last part where there were enough emperical evidance to conclude that the result of the first Test Match and the form of their respective captains play a very important part in the outcome of a Test Series between Australia and India. This time we shall look at the tours that the Australian Cricket team made to India in the last 10 years.
The last time Australia toured India was in the 2012-13 season. That time the Australian Team was "brown-washed" by the Indian Test Team four-nil. Before that in 2010-11 India again won two-nil in their backyard. Mahendra Singh Dhoni had brilliant performances while Michael Clarke (and Shane Watson) and Ricky Ponting struggled with form and injury. In 2008-09 Indian team won the home series two-nil with Anil Kumble and Mahendra Singh Dhoni faring way better than Ricky Ponting. In the 2004-05 series, Australia won one-two with Adam Gilchrist having a brilliant series while Sourav Ganguly and Rahul Dravid were not as good.
The three times that the Australian Team lost the series, they lost the first Test Match in two of them. The one time that they won the series they also won the first Test Match as well.
The series results mentioned in the first article and the series results in Australia points to the fact that out of the seven series played between Australia and India in the last ten years, five have been won by the home team. This means that home advantage plays a very significant part in the predicting the outcome of the series.
Lastly to put everything into perspective we can conclude that the Australian Cricket Team are starting with a massive home advantage that can be turned into something substantial should they win the first Test Match. One of the main ways in which the Indian Cricket team can make a comeback is by banking on their captain's form. This will lead to the final part of the series where we shall take a look at the captains on display on both the sides.