- Talk is that the Fed will announce QE3 at Jackson Hole 2011
- The Fed did not announce QE2 at Jackson Hole 2010
- No formal policy announcement is expected on Friday


By Greg Peel

It was at this time last year at the Fed's Jackson Hole retreat, we have oft been reminded recently, that Ben Bernanke announced QE2. Thereafter, the stock market rallied to new post-GFC highs. The circumstances are so similar this year that a QE3 announcement must be imminent on Friday.

Encouraging stuff, if only it were true.

Contrary to popular belief, Ben Bernanke did not announce QE2 at Jackson Hole last year. Indeed, as Commonwealth Bank's forex strategists point out, the Fed only ever makes policy change announcements in statements accompanying scheduled policy meetings, and never in unrelated speeches. This was very much the case at Jackson Hole in 2010, where Bernanke merely outlined a range of potential policy measures the Fed may pursue were the US economic outlook to deteriorate, of which there were three "and/or" options.