Rates pause may extend
The Reserve Bank of Australia's quarterly monetary policy statement released today suggests the current pause in interest rate rises could be prolonged.
The Central Bank's updated economic outlook for economic growth and inflation almost mirrored the scenario detailed in the early May statement.
Underlying inflation, currently at 2.7 per cent by both the Reserve Bank's favoured measures, is predicted to remain at 2.75 per cent through to the end of 2011 before rising to 3 per cent in 2012.
Annual expansion in real gross domestic product (GDP), last posted at 2.7 per cent over the year to March, is expected to climb to 4 per cent through 2012.
Other than some minor changes to the quarterly profile, the data are virtually the same with the previous corresponding period.
This was what led the Reserve Bank's board to hold the cash rate at 4.5 per cent for the third straight month after a series of rate hikes had pushed it up from 3 per cent at the start of October to 4.5 per cent in May.
Nonetheless, the risks for interest rates are still inclined to the upside as implied by the forecast that underlying inflation will be at or near the top of the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 per cent target range until at least the end of 2012.
"As always, there are risks in both directions around the forecast, although overall, these risks are viewed as evenly balanced," the RBA said in its statement on Friday.