By Greg Peel

Going back a couple of months, no one expected another RBA cash rate rise was likely before August after the June quarter GDP result was in. But half that pack broke away after the minutes of the May RBA meeting were released. Suddenly the language was a lot more hawkish than it had been, and the RBA suggested a rate rise would be needed "at some point". The statement accompanying the May "no change" decision had included this caveat:

"Looking through these short-term movements, however, the recent information suggests that the marked decline in underlying inflation from the peak in 2008 has now run its course. While the rising exchange rate will be helping to hold down prices for some consumer products over the coming few quarters, over the longer term inflation can be expected to increase somewhat if economic conditions evolve broadly as expected."

The board, noted