RBA: Currency Intervention Not an Immediate Option for Now
The central bank is not keen on forcing the Australian dollar to assume values that were inconsistent with the dictates of market forces, according to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Philip Lowe.
That means no intervention coming from the RBA is forthcoming anytime soon, Mr Lowe said during his speech in an economic forum held Wednesday on Sydney.
In any case, such move will prove hard to justify, the RBA official stressed.
"While ever that is the case I think it is difficult to make a strong argument that the exchange rate is fundamentally misaligned and while ever that is the case that makes the hurdle for intervention quite high," Mr Lowe was reported as saying by The Australian.
He added that vis-à-vis with the current state of the domestic economy, the Australian currency has been carrying values that normally reflective of a stable economy despite its ill effects on a number of business sectors like the retail and manufacturing industry.
"At the moment, the high currency is being driven by the high terms of trade and the higher terms of trade are being driven by these global developments so I don't think we can make the case that the currency is fundamentally away from where the right level is," Mr Lowe told his audience.
The RBA can only step in is when it deems that economic indicators were not parallel with the movements of the local dollar or when it exceeded the parameters set by policy makers.
"It is possible for exchange rates to overshoot ... (but) at the moment, the high currency is being driven by the high terms of trade and the higher terms of trade are being driven by these global developments," Mr Lowe said.
Mr Lowe stressed that as a matter of policy, the RBA will only make a strategic move once it deems that "the currency is clearly away from levels that could be justified by fundamentals."
Yet right now, the Australian economy enjoys a fairly solid employment trend and inflation movements remain within the manageable range, the RBA official said.
Add to that is the projected economic expansion, which the RBA has so far determined within the expected realm of upswings, both near and medium term, Mr Lowe said.
But with the Australian dollar almost always moving though not necessarily sliding down, Mr Lowe allowed that RBA's policy rates remain flexible, meaning that the policy hold that has been in effect since February would not be sustained by next month.
One area of concern for the RBA is the country's jobless rate, the movement of which could be blurred by the rising dollar and in the process blindside policy makers from what could prove as an impending contraction of the local economy.
"If this were to turn out to be the case, monetary policy would have the flexibility to respond provided the inflation outlook remained benign," Mr Lowe said.
The general situation, however, is far from alarming as the RBA maintains that the Australian economy is behaving in a way that the market expects it to be and the 4.25 per cent interest rate remains in line with moderating inflation numbers.
But the central bank is keeping its monitoring posture to watch over possible problem signals.
"Australia is seen by foreign investors, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds, as an attractive destination for investment, and we need to be alert to the possibility that portfolio flows could push up the exchange rate too far," Mr Lowe said.