RBA pause triggers October upsurge in consumer confidence
The Australian central bank's move to opt for another pause on its policy rates in October apparently sparked a rise in consumer confidence that fresh data indicated has well exceeded the benchmark for spending optimism.
Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) string of interest rates hold that extended through this month, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute of Consumer Sentiment surged by 3.3 percent to 117 and soared past the 100 mark that distinguishes pessimism from optimism.
The fresh figures sprung from the 113.2 posted in September and registered an improvement of 2.5 percent for the yearly average.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans added that the October numbers were a departure by up to 15 percent from the low points seen in March to May this year, pointing out that a number of reasons were behind the recovery from the five percent slide seen during the previous month.
Mr Evans said that the RBA's decision to sustain its hold on the cash rate this month would naturally boost consumer confidence since the country has been conditioned by a spike amidst "press speculation that rates were about to rise with the possibility of interest rate 'top ups' from the banks."
Australia's business community was surprised when the RBA allowed the 4.5 percent interest rates to roll over in October amidst spirited projections by many experts that a rise of up to 4.75 should be expected.
The resulting spike in consumer confidence, however, could be momentary as Mr Evans maintained that the presence of volatility in the international economies could trigger some amount of cautions among consumers.
For the past few months, media coverage of the struggling economies in US and Europe has been heightened while the domestic conditions were not equally encouraging as house prices on the three months leading to August dipped by 1.5 percent.
Along that line, fresh data also showed that family cash flows declined by 0.8 percent from results posted from last year while cash inflow projections for the next 12 months shrunk by 3.8 percent.
Also, a separate survey by Westpac has highlighted the declining numbers of Australians who expect that house price would rise, from 70 percent in July to 63 percent this month as Mr Evans emphasised that "these contrasting effects might explain the divergence in the components of the index."