Federer
Roger Federer of Switzerland reacts after losing a point to Novak Djokovic of Serbia during their men's singles final match at the U.S. Open Championships tennis tournament in New York, September 13, 2015. Reuters/Lucas Jackson

Betting on Roger Federer to win the 2016 Australian Open? The sports books are not giving the Swiss Maestro a very good chance of winning the first Grand Slam title of the new ATP season with rival Novak Djokovic of Serbia being pegged as the runaway favourite and with another top player in Andy Murray of the United Kingdom having better odds to win the title.

Specific betting odds for all top players have been discussed in a previous article, which put Federer as the third favourite to win the Aussie Open crown behind Djokovic and Murray. Federer and Murray have similar odds winning the crown with former World No. 1 Rafael Nadal and 2014 Australian Open winner Stan Wawrinka.

Why are the sports books not giving Federer much credit despite having 17 Grand Slam titles under his belt and having won four times (2004, 2006, 2007 and 2010) in the majors in Melbourne?

Looking at Federer’s past performances in the Grand Slam tourneys and the Swiss’ recent head-to-head history against rival Djokovic, it’s easy to spot why it’s tough for Federer to net his 18th Grand Slam title in this ATP stop:

Federer
Roger Federer of Switzerland reacts during his Men's Singles Final match against Novak Djokovic of Serbia at the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London, July 12, 2015. Reuters/Stefan Wermuth

Federer has not won a Grand Slam since 2012

Federer’s last triumph in the Grand Slam was at the 2012 Wimbledon Championships where he beat Andy Murray in four sets, 4–6 7–5 6–3 6–4 in the championship round in London. Federer did appear in three more finals (2014 and 2015 Wimbledon Championships and 2015 US Open) but lost all his trips in the championship round of those majors.

Federer
Roger Federer of Switzerland reacts during his match against Nick Kyrgios of Australia at the Madrid Open tennis tournament in Madrid, Spain, May 6, 2015. Reuters/Susana Vera

Federer has a poor record against Djokovic in their recent match-ups

Federer’s losses in three finals appearances in the last two years have come from the same opponent in current World No. 1 Djokovic, who won in a classic five-setter at 2014 Wimbledon (6-7(7) 6–4 7–6(4) 5–7 6–4); in four sets at 2015 Wimbledon (6-4 5-7 6-4 6-4); and four sets at 2015 US Open (7–6(1) 6–7(10) 6-4 6-3).

Djokovic has also dominated Federer in their head-to-head series in their last seven match-ups with a win-loss record of 5-2.

Federer is not washed-up by any means and he is still one of the best and elite players at the tender age of 34 years old.

However, his track record in recent Grand Slams have not been good enough and Djokovic’s domination in their recent meetings show that Federer might just come up short again in Australia.

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