Richard (Rick) Mills
Ahead of the Herd

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.


Commodity super-cycles are defined as decades long price movements in a wide range of commodities. Super-cycles differ from shorter term fluctuations in three ways:

  • Super-cycles are demand driven because they follow world GDP
  • Super-cycles span a much longer period of time with upswings of 10-35 years, taking 20-70 years to generate complete cycles
  • Super-cycles are observed over a broad range of commodities. These commodities are mostly inputs for industrial production and for the urban development of an emerging economy

According to DESA Working Paper No. 110'Super-cycles of commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century' published February 2012 byBilge Erten and Jos