REPEAT Rudi's View: Why It's A Tough Time For Equities
(This story was originally written and published on Wednesday 15th June, 2011. It has now been re-published to make it available to non-paying members at FNArena and to readers elsewhere).
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
When it comes to leading market indicators, none has the track record and the accuracy of the monthly purchasing managers' surveys across the globe, which makes it even more remarkable as to why these surveys enjoy so little attention in market commentaries and strategy assessments in Australia.
Sure, the composition of labour and output has changed dramatically in developed economies over decades past, with the services industry now contributing more than manufacturing, but the accuracy of the forward looking indicators in the monthly PMI surveys has remained intact nevertheless. Many services providers wouldn't have a clue what next month might look like, but manufacturers know what lies ahead well in advance. Which is why the monthly surveys about sales, inventories, new orders, hiring intentions and input costs have remained so useful.
Economists use these surveys to fine tune their forecasts. At times, big changes need to be made. Investment strategists learned a long time ago one simply cannot ignore the trend and forward looking indications from these surveys - because they have a direct impact on what is happening in financial markets.
For equity investors, these surveys are no less than an invaluable tool. Which, it has to be repeated, makes it remarkable as to why these surveys enjoy so little attention in market commentaries and strategy assessments in Australia.
This is not the first time I