Romantic weekends and silky slips are off the agenda this February 14th with IBISWorld business information analysts predicting Australians will spend an average of $38.60 on the object of our affection, down 3.2% from last year.

Valentine’s Day has offered somewhat of a rollercoaster ride for lovers in recent years. During the GFC greeting cards underwent a renaissance in lieu of expensive gifts, whilst last year saw a return to splashing out on the back of rising consumer confidence.
This year, IBISWorld General Manager (Australia) Mr Robert Bryant forecasts a return to sensible spending, estimating Valentine’s Day 2011 expenditure will total $870.1 million – a modest 0.3% rise from last year on the back of a relatively flat retail climate over the past 12 months.

“Prudent spending is the theme this February 14 as Australians continue to tighten their belts, selecting modest gifts such as flowers and boxed chocolates instead of romantic getaways and something sparkly,” Mr Bryant said.
IBISWorld’s predictions for Valentine’s Day 2011 spending include:

“While the lead up to February 14 will not be the coup some retailers were hoping for, spending will still certainly bring a smile to some sectors,” Mr Bryant said - identifying the florist industry as this year’s Valentine’s winner, predicting cut flower sales will rise 9.6%, to $50 million.

“A low-cost and convenient option compared to jewellery, fancy restaurants, lingerie and the like, we expect flowers will be a top gift choice this year,” Mr Bryant added. And while many Australian flower growers have been affected by the recent deluge of natural disasters, IBISWorld expects there will be little supply disruption for Valentine’s Day, with much of the stock already in distribution.
The news is less positive for the hospitality industry, with Mr Bryant flagging the fact Valentine’s Day falls on a Monday as a deterrent to dining out, with many Australians preferring to cook a fancy meal at home or curl up on the sofa with takeaway.
Despite this, IBISWorld still expects we will spend around $30.6 million eating out, up 3% from last year - with the local French bistro or Italian cafe being more popular choice than dining a la carte with waterfront views, and many dinner dates taking place on the weekend prior to Monday 14.

Chocolate and confectionery sales – true Valentine’s Day staples – will grow by 2.2% to $285.3 million.

Segments set to suffer this February 14 include greeting cards, which will see sales slide by 1.5%, clothing and intimate apparel which will drop by 1.2% from last year, and romantic weekends away which will fall by 2.0%.

“Greeting card sales have been on the wane for a couple of years now, which may reflect the rise of electronic card alternatives, whilst clothing, lingerie and short breaks represent expensive discretionary purchases which will make up a smaller proportion of this year’s total Valentine’s Day spending as we stick to our resolution to save – not splurge,” said Mr Bryant.