Retail Flat in February but Analysts Upbeat on Rising Consumer Activities
The Australian retail sector registered flat movements in February, paving the way for miniscule growth that analysts said were reflective of market's expectations but not as ominous as the figures showed.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed on Tuesday that the retail industry inched up only by 0.2 percent in the month to $20.988 billion, seasonally adjusted, coming from the 420.954 billion posted in January, also downwardly adjusted.
Amidst report of adjustments and consolidations among key retail players in the country, analysts said the fresh numbers were not entirely the full picture of a retail set-up, in which consumers seem still hesitant to dig deep into their pockets.
While earnings may not be that easy to come by these days, consumers nonetheless set aside enough cash to fund their eat outs and vacation splurges though in a tempered manner, according to CMC chief market strategist Michael McCarthy.
The latest results were hardly a shock, McCarthy added, citing that the sector has retreated by more than 50 percent over the past six months.
The data, he predicted, will not spur any negative movements in the shares market and "we are still seeing strong activity in other areas of the economy, notably overseas travel and restaurants and cafes."
It weakness were indeed apparent in the sector, McCarthy told the Australian Associated Press (AAP) that "this weakness is specific to some of the structural shifts that are going on in retail, rather than the broader economic activity of consumers."
Important indicators that must be taken into account in reading the new data was the actual effect of the ongoing mining boom to the struggling retail sector, in which where boom was present so was the corresponding boost for retailers.
Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican noted that Queensland and Western Australia, both major mining regions, registered growths of 1.0 percent in February, suggesting that high-earning consumers in the areas were fuelling higher sales for retailers in the month.
And midway into the current year, Redican is convinced that consumer activities will spike further to the point of providing a turnaround phase for retailers before the end of the year, thanks much to the compensations that the new carbon tax would deliver by that time of the year.
"Households could be getting around $300 to $600 around the middle of the year and there will be a strong temptation to spend it," Redican told AAP.
Also, the soft results carried by the fresh ABS survey strongly indicated that the rate cuts and holds implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) since November last year, leaving the benchmark cash rate at 4.25 percent, failed to spur growth in the retail sector and contrary to the aims laid out by the RBA board.
"It highlights that growth in the retail sector remains quite soft ... and it shows that the interest rate cuts from late last year have not provided much support for the sector," National Australia Bank (NAB) economist Spiros Papadopoulos told AAP.
The trend seen so far should convince the RBA that one indicator could not be weighed on too much in deciding what specific policy rates would best serve the general economy, McCarthy said.
"It's becoming increasingly clear that the Reserve Bank is looking across the economy as a whole, and is unlikely to move its monetary policy on the basis of the concerns of a single sector," he added.
And setting the aside the retail results in February, which started with a rate freeze, the CMC analysts is convinced that the RBA will simply follow through on its decision in the past two months - that is pausing the cash rate at 4.25 percent.