Ask your average man in the street to name a major health concern facing the world today and they'd be unlikely to name diabetes. But they could. Diabetes is becoming one of the most serious health conditions worldwide. Its rapid rise in China and India is the focus of a recent Emerging Markets Monitor, which considers the cost of this epidemic in both human and economic terms.

A global epidemic
The surge in Diabetes mellitus (DM) is chiefly related to Type 2 Diabetes (DM2) where the body loses its ability to produce sufficient insulin. Estimates from international agencies leave no doubt that a massive percentage of populations will have to deal with DM2, or its complications, such as vascular and kidney diseases. The International Diabetes Federation estimates more than half a billion patients by 2030, while China already has around 90 million sufferers.

One man's take out is another man's poison
Sedentary lifestyles and diets rich in refined, processed carbohydrates (such as snack foods and soft drinks) are known factors in the onset of diabetes. Medical research also indicates a genetic factor that is particularly relevant when considering Asia, as Asian people especially carry a higher risk of developing the condition.

Combine genetic factors with increasingly wealthy Asian populations and you get a bitter reality: as people climb out of poverty and begin consuming richer foods, so their likelihood of developing DM2 increases. Such insights prompted Pakistani Professor Samad Shera to maintain that the U.S. was right to look to Iraq for Weapons of Mass Destruction, for a subsidiary of a major fast food chain can be found on every street corner.

Potential growth impact
The potential effect of DM2 on the economic growth path of emerging markets varies. In economic terms, healthcare costs, though enormous, are not the biggest expense.

A much larger cost is reduced labour productivity resulting from the premature death or DM2-related disabilities of the patient, or a decline in the productivity of family members who may care for the patient.

The projected figures speak for themselves. Based on data currently available about India, it is speculated that the total cost of DM2 in India could reach as high as 3% of GDP per year. This if the true cost of a patient's reduced productivity, as well as that of their family or caregiver could be taken into account.

Limited data notwithstanding, it is clear that the diabetes epidemic could slow the apparently 'unstoppable growth' of emerging markets like India and China, especially as there are signs that younger people are developing DM2.

As Rabobank economist Jeroen van IJzerloo notes: "You'll get an increasing part of the population screaming out for health institutions and that will have an impact on how governments can spend... they will be asked to shift from promoting pure economic growth to providing social security and healthcare. This may put these countries on an entirely different, and lower, growth path."

Pay now, or pay later
On a positive note, DM2 is largely preventable and governments are not powerless. Indeed, with more and more consumers at risk of slipping back into poverty because of diabetes, governments will have to tackle the condition. By investing now they may yet avert larger human and economic costs later.

Investments can be made in health care and medical research. Campaigns can raise awareness of the importance of exercise and healthy eating. Regulatory measures could limit the number of fast-food chains on the streets or require suppliers to put healthier options on the menu. There is, in essence, a chance to stem the tide.