Satellite Crashes; NASA Couldn't Track Thousands of Space Debris
NASA a week ago gave a vague warning - a decommissioned 20-year old satellite, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, could land anywhere between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude, a vast swath of populated territory. Re-entry was estimated at 23, plus or minus a day. Stephen Colbert mocked NASA's useless satellite projections in The Colbert Report.
On Saturday, NASA announced that UARS already fell back to earth. NASA said that satellite components weighing a total of 1,200 pounds (biggest chunk at 300 pounds) could have survived re-entry. But it said that precise re-entry time and location of debris impacts have not been determined. It only made an educated guess by saying: data indicates the satellite LIKELY LANDED in the Pacific Ocean far off the U.S. Coast. NASA said that no injuries or damage have been reported on land, a good indication the satellite went into the ocean.
Given that NASA only guessed, there's still a possibility that the debris could have fallen on land. But NASA noted no one had ever been hit by falling space junk in history. And the odds of one person being struck was an estimated 1-in-22 trillion, compared to the 1-in-116 million probability of winning the jackpot in EuroMillions lottery.
NASA's failure to track the falling satellite generated widespread interest and panic in certain areas. As far as the Philippines, it was reported that some residents of the island of Capiz were seen fleeing, after a flare was seen falling towards a field in the area. Policemen, however, only saw an aluminum tube wrapped in masking tape, plastic, and pieces of cloth (paging NASA is this it?).
NASA has warned that UARS debris belongs to the U.S. government and it's illegal to keep it or sell it. The space agency said, "If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance."
This is not the first time NASA has failed to precisely map the re-entry of some defunct satellites, or verify where debris fell. And it has continued to struggle tracking more than 20,000 pieces of orbiting debris. NASA has acknowledged UARS's was not an easy re-entry to predict because of the natural forces acting on the satellite as its orbit decayed.
A Wall Street Journal report points out that more recent satellites are designed so that operators can bring them out of orbit and control their trajectory as they take the final plunge through the atmosphere. But UARS and many others were launched before NASA and other nations started new programs that prevent uncontrolled crashes of satellites.
What could have NASA done to be able to precisely pinpoint the trajectory when space objects plummet back to earth?
Suggestions that are interesting but won't work include (1) subscribing to OnStar, General Motors' satellite service that automatically calls for help once you are stranded or in a crash and records everywhere a GM vehicle goes, (2) having a Kardashian aboard the satellite so that its re-entry or anything it does would have been available 24 hours on E! or from Kim's hash tags on Twitter, or (3) installing an iPhone in it as Apple is keeping a a database of locations and movements of iPhone users.
NASA usually predicts that uncontrolled satellites won't hit land based on the premise that the earth is 70% water. But NASA should do better than that. Put your suggestions at the comment box below.