Secret Poll Favors the Return of Kevin Rudd as Labor Party Stalwart
Labor is likely to boost its primary votes if the party would reinstall Kevin Rudd as leader, a secret union-sponsored survey said earlier this week, pointing to the likelihood that the former prime minister may consider another leadership challenge.
Polling selected electorate areas in Queensland and Victoria, the survey by the Queensland branch of labour group United Voice showed that with Mr Rudd headlining the government, Labor would be able to push up its popularity from 11 per cent to 18 per cent, likely on top of the traction that the ruling party registered in the recent Nielsen survey.
The United Voice secret polling, according to Fairfax, also indicated that Mr Rudd would bring about swing votes both from male and female Australians, with the former adding up 13 per cent to Labor's primary and the latter contributing nine per cent.
The survey result was reported as Labor and Prime Minister Julia Gillard picked up considerable gains in the latest Nielsen opinion polls, which was commissioned by Fairfax Media.
Nielsen said on Monday that Aussies would vote for a Coalition government next year but new data also suggested that the trend is now reversible as Labor caught up with the commanding lead of Liberal-National alliance, prompting analysts to project that the government has suddenly become competitive.
Recent survey results have indicated too that Labor has reversed the gloom prospect of a wipe-out come the 2013 federal election, likely inspiring the government to creep back and push for a turnaround.
Yet most notable is the new Nielsen data that showed Prime Minister Julia Gillard has overtaken Opposition Leader Tony Abbott in the popularity contest, erecting a 10-point margin over Mr Abbott in the preferred prime minister department.
Ms Gillard also edged out her foe in the approval numbers, collecting ratings that easily trounced the Liberal leader in almost every aspect of the battle.
Her soaring numbers, however, failed to dampen hopes by supporters of Mr Rudd for him to reclaim his old job, which was the reason behind the secret survey of the United Voice branch, Fairfax said.
Yet it turned out too that the polling was independently commissioned by the labour group's branch in Queensland.
In the aftermath of the survey, United Voice national secretary Louise Tarrant told The National Times that "our national union has a position that we deal with the leader of the day. Prime Minister Gillard has been very effective on several issues that relate to our members."
Determining Labor's question of leadership, Ms Tarrant added, remains the sole function of the party caucus.
Analysts said the secret survey would do little to bolster the chance of Mr Rudd regaining the Labor leadership as Nielsen suggested strongly that Ms Gillard has consolidated her position following her misogynist and sexist speech against Mr Abbott.
"Ms Gillard benefited from that speech on two fronts: it struck a chord with many women and it brought to the fore her feisty fighting side," Michelle Grattan of The Age said on Friday.
These benefits were manifested on the upward spiralling of Ms Gillard's national popularity, Ms Grattan said, which apparently were also driven up by the faltering scare campaign tactic on the carbon tax earlier espoused by Mr Abbott.