Soaring export prices push rates up
Further hikes in interest rates are expected as Australia's export prices hit a record increase last quarter fuelled by Asian demand for iron ore and coal.
The 16.1 per cent lift in export prices for the three months to June was the biggest since the series has begun in 1974 and promises to bolster profits, investment, employment, wages and tax earnings.
It is also a major factor the Reserve Bank of Australia has already increased cash rates six times since October and could well move again in August should consumer price figures (CPI) due July 28 show stubbornly high inflation.
"The CPI report will make or break the case for an August hike," said Macquarie interest rate strategist Rory Robertson.
The Reserve Bank is counting on annual underlying inflation moderating to below 3 per cent, returning it within its 2 to 3 per cent target limit for the first time in three years.
That would necessitate a quarterly hike in underlying inflation of not higher than 0.8 per cent, which incidentally is also the median of analysts' forecasts.
Most analysts suppose a result of 0.7 per cent or less would potentially see the cash rate hold at 4.5 per cent for at least another month, while an increase of 0.9 per cent or more would intensify pressure for a lift in August.
"My guess is underlying inflation will rise by 0.7 to 0.8 per cent and the RBA will not move, but if it's 0.9 or more then rates are going to 4.75 per cent on August 3," Mr Robertson said.