- Global steel price upturn expected early in 2012
- Market conditions not uniform
- US seeing some price increases, Western Europe market weak
- Asian markets mixed

By Chris Shaw

In the view of steel industry consultant MEPS, a global steel price upturn is expected early in 2012. Within this scenario, MEPS notes different markets are facing different conditions at present.

In the US some mills have already implemented proposed flat product transaction price increases, but MEPS notes further increases of US$40-$50 per tonne are likely to reflect the impact of cost increases.

The price hikes only apply to a small volume of business, as a large number of buyers had already placed orders at big discounts.

This leads MEPS to suggest buyers may not purchase enough material after the holidays to keep these higher values in place. With US transaction numbers ahead of other parts of the world at present, MEPS sees scope for the US market to attract the attention of overseas suppliers.

Western European steel markets are quiet at present as demand is weak and activity levels are low. MEPS notes distributors have begun to place orders for period one delivery, a move designed to avoid shortages following end of year production stoppages and capacity cuts.

Deals already concluded have seen lower transaction figures than were reported in November and some only cover January and February production. MEPS suggests this is because steelmakers will look to push through some price increases before the end of the first trimester next year.

In China, MEPS notes sluggish downstream demand contributed to lower prices in late November and early December, while traders have continued to de-stock given high financing costs. MEPS also notes producers have started to trim output in anticipation of slower economic growth in 2012.

Japanese automotive and industrial machinery sectors continue to recover steadily from the disasters earlier this year, but MEPS notes a slower Asian market is seeing steel order receipts from overseas drop.

Steel stocks in Japan remain in surplus and import volumes continue to rise, producers responding by lowering domestic output. MEPS notes this has to date had little impact on the supply side.

In South Korea demand remains soft and inventory adjustment has been slow. Domestic stocks of flat products continue to rise strongly, while export sales are also growing quickly thanks to the weakness in the Korean won.