Stocks to weaken amid election uncertainty
The Australian stock market is set to open lower today amid uncertainty in the result of the weekend's federal election.
At 0618 AEST Monday on the Sydney Futures Exchange, which predicts the day's market action, the September share price index contract lost 9 points to 4,387.
Commonwealth Securities senior analyst Craig James said, "One thing investors don't like is uncertainty."
The prospect of a hung parliament would compound concerns already shaking markets about the prospect of a double-dip recession, according to AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver.
He said "Uncertainty over who will govern, fears of a possible drift towards less business friendly policies reflecting the increased power of the Greens, worries about less decisive policy making, and a likely absence of longer term reforms under a minority government will all likely add to jitters in the Australian share market and in the Australian dollar."
Australian stocks were already set for a moderate fall after a lower close on Wall Street on Friday, and that will be worsened by the election results.
However many investors were likely to stay on the sidelines until the poll outcome became obvious.
"We probably will see investors not wanting to go too far either way," Mr James said.
The future of several major policies, particularly the Labor government's proposed minerals resource rent tax and national broadband network, remains unsure after the election.
Resource stocks may climb as investors see the election outcome as the death of a new mining levy, Mr James said.
"Whether it's a Labor or Liberal minority government there doesn't appear to be a mandate for a new mining tax."
"Really it does look as though that tax isn't going to be implemented."
The prospects of the NBN were more doubtful, he said, and investors would likely avoid the telco sector until the future became clearer.
"I wouldn't have thought it would be dramatic for Telstra either way," Mr James said.
Election results will remain a major issue for investors for most of the week, while company reporting season goes on.
Among the major companies announcing results this week are BHP Billiton Ltd, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd, Westpac Banking Corporation and Woolworths Ltd.
Meanwhile, the only significant economic data due for release is the Australian Bureau of Statistics' June quarter construction work figures on Wednesday.
In economics news today, The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) conducts a tender of $200 million of the August 2020 Treasury Indexed Bond line.
Reporting season continues in equities, with NIB Holdings Ltd, Ansell Ltd, Riversdale Mining Ltd, St Barbara Ltd, Qrxpharma Ltd, and Challenger Financial Services Group Ltd all expected to declare their annual results.
Caltex Australia Ltd and Spark Infrastructure Group Ltd will release their half year outcome, while Westpac Banking Corporation publishes its August trading update.
On Friday, the Australian bourse closed weaker as company earnings results failed to please investors on the eve of the federal poll and amid elevated worries about the US economy.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished 48.1 points or 1.07 per cent lower at 4,430.9 points. The broader All Ordinaries index had lost 47.5 points or 1.05 per cent to 4,462.1 points.