Strong US Dollar And Cheap Oil Will Boost World Economy, Says Bloomberg Poll
The plunging oil prices and surging U.S. dollar will drive economic growth throughout the world, according to a global poll conducted by Bloomberg.
The poll, conducted on 481 Bloomberg subscribers, was held on Jan 14 by Selzer & Co., based in Iowa. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The respondents in the poll included investors, analysts and traders. A majority of the respondents believe that oil’s 55 percent plunge since June has spurred a worldwide expansion. Around 58 percent said obvious gains in the dollar against other currencies such as the euro and yen will be helping the investors.
Interestingly, the perception about these two important economic trends is shaping up many financial markets also. The poll has allayed concerns that cheaper crude will mean a slowing of the world economy. These issues are going to be keenly debated at the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan 23, reports Bloomberg.
Low Energy Bill
“Practically every industry is a consumer of energy, and the decline in oil means the price decline of a key input,” explained Graham Davidson, a currency trader at National Australia Bank Ltd. in London. He sees dipping oil price as an opportunity in hiking corporate profitability and improving consumers’ spending power and ultimately leading to productive investment.
In the poll, 72 percent said oil price slide has reflected an increase in supply rather than a slump in demand. Despite oil posting its biggest annual decline since 2008, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been resisting calls to cut production, and the U.S. is also pumping oil at the fastest rate.
About 19 percent of respondents said the oil slump will curb economic growth. Many of them also expect the OPEC will act soon. About 58 percent said it is likely to happen in the second half of the year, while 34 percent predicted a tangible shift in oil price before the end of June.
On the rise of dollar, a majority of the respondents said its gain will help in augmenting worldwide economic growth, asserting that it will contain inflation in the U.S. and lift Japan and the euro zone as a fallout from weaker currencies.
“Since U.S. domestic demand is growing more strongly than rest of the world, a rise in the dollar should encourage stronger demand for imported goods and aid growth in the rest of the world,” said Robert Sinche, a strategist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut.
IMF Outlook
Meanwhile, Reuters reported about the impact from IMF forecast that cut global growth in 2015 to 3.5 percent from 3.8 percent. The IMF also called up governments and central banks to pursue accommodative monetary policies and reforms. The European Central Bank has hinted its plans for a stimulus to the euro zone economy. That news has already lifted the European shares to a seven-year high, spurred by investor appetite for taking risk.
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