Surging inflation grabs focus at ADB annual meet
Rising economic-growth star Vietnam may have just turned into "Exhibit A" at an international finance gabfest it is hosting this week whose agenda mirrors its own challenges--the mounting pressure of rising consumer prices and tightening monetary and fiscal stance among developing countries craving for economic growth that will benefit their citizens.
Dragged by an accelerating rate of inflation, Vietnam has lowered its economic growth target for this year in order to concentrate on strategies to minimize the adverse effects of price increases on its people.
The switch in priorities was announced by Vietnam's Minister of Planning and Investment Vo Hong Phuc during a forum on Tuesday, the first day of the Asian Development Bank's annual board of governors meeting in Hanoi.
Earlier, Indonesia and Thailand reported higher inflation rates which have triggered expectations of interest rate increases in the coming months. Whether economic growth in those countries will also be impacted remains to be seen, however.
On the agenda of the ADB meeting are options for its developing member countries in the wake of surging food and oil prices following the political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, and the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan that also triggered a prolonged nuclear power plant crisis.
"Inflation will need to be carefully managed using a mix of policy measures-especially given the harder impact of inflation on the poor, which in Asia still number in the hundreds of millions," ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda said on the meeting's opening day.
Mr Kuroda did not exactly say it but an increasingly dysfunctional global monetary system seems to be complicating the developing countries' problems, according to analysts.
Vietnam is a case in point. With inflation spiralling to 17.5 percent in April and expected to average 11.75 percent for the full-year 2011, the country has found it necessary to cut its target GDP growth rate for the year to 6.5 percent from the previous range of 7.0-7.5 percent, Mr Phuc disclosed.
Earlier targeted at 7 percent for this year, inflation has been pushed up in recent weeks by sharp increases in energy costs that the government itself has precipitated by allowing fuel prices to go up by over 20 percent in the first quarter of the year.
Electricity rates, which have already risen by 15 percent in March, are likely to be allowed to increase some more in the coming months, according to media reports from Hanoi.
A tightening of monetary and fiscal policy came in the form of reductions in planned public investment along with increases in the central bank's key policy rates last week.
For the Vietnamese people, these moves could likely mean scarce credit, rising costs of consumer goods and utilities, and reduced government spending in certain sectors.
Apparently Vietnam is not alone in experiencing steep price increases. Indonesia reported early this week that year-on-year inflation in April settled at 6.16 percent, from 6.65 percent in March.
However, core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and fuel prices but includes prices of commodities, raced to 4.62 percent in April, from 4.45 percent the month before.
There are still no indications whether Indonesia will repeat an increase in interest rates it implemented last February, the first such increase in two years, according to reports in Jakarta.
On Tuesday Thailand's commerce ministry reported a year-on-year inflation rate in April of 4.04 percent, its highest in 15 months. The April figure was also faster than the 3.14 percent posted in March. A surge in food costs due to weather changes was behind the accelerated inflation rate, the report said.
Thailand monetary authorities, analysts in Bangkok say, could now be open to rate increases as a move to temper further price surges.
ADB's Mr Kuroda has expressed concern about this pattern, especially when viewed against the current slow economic growth and high government debt in most advanced economies, and an economically strong, export-dependent Asia that is experiencing a flood of inward capital flows attracted by better earnings prospects in the region's financial and equity markets.
With countries such as China, Brazil, and India now among the world's leading economies, experts have warned that an international monetary system dominated by the US dollar-and supported by a few other currencies like the euro, the UK pound, and the Japanese yen-does not reflect current economic realities, the ADB chief noted.
In the meantime, across the Pacific, US officials are debating on whether the government should get extended extraordinary authority to borrow more funds as it nears the national debt ceiling. Expected to hit its debt ceiling this weekend, the government could go into default in early July if it does not get additional borrowings, according to reports.
"We have yet to fix the current international monetary system - which fails to address issues such as large and volatile capital flows, undue exchange rate pressures, and disruptions in providing sufficient global liquidity in times of market distress," the ADB president said.
The ADB meeting in Hanoi will likely have tough sessions in the next couple of days. It might be useful to look for some signs that could indicate the tenor of the discussions at yet another meeting--the ASEAN leaders' summit in Jakarta this weekend.