Surveys over China’s January PMI Give Out Mixed Signals
Investors have been advised to just sit back and relax, but continue to adopt a cautionary stance, after two conflicting sets of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on China were revealed on Wednesday which could send premature jitters to the world economy.
According to state-affiliated China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of China, the world's second-largest economy, jumped 0.2 points to 50.5 in January compared from the 50.3 registered in December, connoting a second straight month of improvement.
However, an independent survey from HSBC totally opposed the federation's PMI. According to the HSBC PMI, China's manufacturing sector basically remains unchanged, at 48.8 compared in January to 48.7 from December, implying a "moderate deterioration in Chinese manufacturing sector conditions."
Although HSBC's survey represented an uptick, still it is well-below established contraction levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
"The final results of January's PMI survey confirmed the still weak growth momentum of manufacturing activities into the new year," Hongbin Qu, HSBC's chief economist for China, said in a statement.
"This calls for more aggressive easing measures to support growth, given that inflation is no longer a concern," he added.
On one hand, for the Logistics Federation, the onset of an early Lunar New Year holiday, in mid-January helped propel production activity during December, spurred by demand in consumer goods industries including tobacco, beverages and food processing. Sectors which experience contraction, on the other hand, included furniture, metal fabrication and smelting and other manufacturing related to construction and industrial production, the federation said.
China's economy is gradually stabilising, Zhang Liqun, federation analyst, said, pointing to the past two months of improvement. Still, he admitted that "the decline in new export orders reflects the weak level of external demand. Such external factors require close attention."
HSBC sees a "tough" first quarter for China for 2012, with growth predicted to slow down to 8 per cent.
China's economic expansion decelerated in the three months ending in December to a 2 1/2-year low of 8.9 per cent from the previous quarter's 9.1 per cent.