Syria Crisis: Aussies Please Leave Syria ASAP as Syria, Iran and Russia Plan Retaliation Against the West
In the wake of the Syrian crisis, Australians in Syria are being advised to leave the country as soon as possible.
According to Foreign Minister Bob Carr, there are 59 Australians in Syria, including six children, who should flee the country as soon as they can. Mr Carr emphasised that they should leave through land transportation or plane before the reported Western military attack.
However, Mr Carr warned the Australians NOT TO PASS THE SYRIA-JORDAN CROSSING near the city of Der'a, the Tal Kalakh crossing to Lebanon, or any other crossing to Iraq.
For those Australians who want to know or warn their friends or family members in Syria, they should contact the Consular Emergency Centre at 1300 555 135.
Meanwhile, there were reports circulating that Syria, Iran and Russia are in the process of working together to prevent a possible Western military attack on Syria as announced by the president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, through an official statement. Russia, on the other hand, deployed warships to the Mediterranean where there had been sightings of warships from the U.S.
However, some analysts claimed that the three countries' plan against the West is limited.
"The Russians can help Syria politically and diplomatically in the United Nations and provide supplies, but they're not nearly as capable as they were at the end of the Cold War," according to Cris Halmer as reported by USA Today. Mr Halmer is an analyst from the Institute for the Study of war who specializes on military plans for the Persian Gulf as a commander in the Navy.
In a blog from ABC News titled, "5 Possible repercussion of a U.S. Military Strike on Syria," there were five possible scenarios that can happen in Syria anytime soon.
One is that Syria will employ its counter attack against any intervention for the west.
"If Damascus comes under attack, Tel Aviv will be targeted and a full-scale war against Syria will actually issue a licence for attacking Israel. If Syria is attacked, Israel will also be set on fire and such an attack will, in turn, engage Syria's neighbors," a Syrian military official was quoted by Iran's Fars News Agency.
Second, Iran will attack the U.S. ally, Israel. However, this was promptly rejected by Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Iran could try to demonstrate its power by either using elements of the Al Quds Force or sponsoring a third party attack on anything from U.S. targets to Israeli targets to Jordanian targets. Israel will probably manage it own defense. We have strong reason not to get too involved at a time when we are working with so many Arab states," Mr Cordesman said.
Third, which Mr Cordesman supported this time, radical groups will counter-attack.
"There is always the possibility that Hezbollah might act out. Islamist extremist action is a possibility," Mr Cordesman stated.
"A lot of (the reaction) depends on the specifics of how visible this strike is. Iran's biggest client is Hezbollah, which has problems of its own and is already deeply involved (in Syria's civil war). Iran could encourage them to be more involved, but to what degree?," Dan Byman, a senior fellow of foreign policy at Brookings Institute, shared his view on the possibility of radical groups' reaction.
Fourth, Syria will accuse the U.S. of war crimes.
"The charges that we've faked the intelligence are already taking place. The broader issue is what happens after the strike? (Syria) may focus on any collateral damage, real or false, to accuse the U.S. of war crimes, to go the U.N. with that," Mr Cordesman explained.
Lastly, the U.S. will succeed in its military attack on Syria, according to Mike O'Halloran, a war expert from the U.S.
"The most likely, and it's always important to underscore that you can never count on the most likely, is it's a one-off. It's very clear that President Obama has no more interest than that, and President Assad would be foolish to give Obama a reason or justification or necessity for doing more. I don't think President Obama is going to do any more than punish and deter any further chemical use, and to reestablish deterrents about weapons of mass destruction issues and behavior around the world. He will feel he's su[c]ceeded if there's not, in fact, a subsequent attack and Iran and North Korea take note," Mr O'Halloran said.