Treasurer Swan Admits Challenges Ahead, Insists on Budget Surplus via Big Savings
Decreasing government revenues and the slowing down national economy could hamper efforts to achieve budget surplus by 2013 but Federal Treasurer Wayne remains confident that the fiscal goal is achievable.
The federal government has acknowledged that Australia saw its economic expansion registering miniscule growth of only 0.4 percent in the December quarter, falling short from the previous guidance of 0.8 percent.
Swan, however, insisted that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) numbers in the last quarter were considerably stable as most economies have been somewhat weighed down by the strains spawned from Europe's financial crisis.
In an economic note that the Treasury issued on Friday, Swan has maintained that his target remains in place - that the surplus will be realised with the government making pains to identify areas where hefty savings could be culled.
The claims were made despite emerging fiscal pressures, mainly coming from the dwindling revenues that the government has posted as of November last year, showing that tax collections shrunk to its lowest level over the last five years.
Tax revenues only reached $140 billion as of late last year, Swan said, adding that the trend was sustained as of the early months of 2012.
"One of the lingering effects of the global financial crisis has been a massive writedown of tax receipts," the Treasurer wrote, hinting at the same time that the immediate ripple effects would definitely disturb the federal budget, which he will present May this year.
"This will inevitably flow through to the budget bottom line and obviously means we will have to find significant savings in the May budget," Swan said.
While works were underway to come up with a reasonable budget plan, Australia needs to contend with the fact that businesses were struggling, with Bloomberg reporting that corporate earnings dipped in the last quarter of 2011, actually registering the highest profit declines in the past two years.
Even the most solid sectors of the economy - mining and banking - have indicated that their operational profits suffered considerable strains late last year, which economists said paved the way for Australia's economy to end up with a deficit in January.
Shipments of commodities, specifically coal and iron ore, were listed as weak, thereby contributing to the shrinking export levels in the month.
And with global commodities stocks further increasing due to ramped up production, Swan admitted that Australia's terms of trade would allow for further retreats in the months and quarters ahead.
But the target remains in sight notwithstanding the anticipated difficulties, Swan asserted as he advocated for stringent fiscal discipline.
"Maintaining our fiscal rigor is absolutely essential at a time when markets are punishing those without discipline," the Treasurer said.
Also, the government's economic policy will provide more space for the central bank to lay out sound measures that would be responsive with the global economic development, Swan said.
So far, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has implemented rate cuts late last year and has opted to freeze the current cash rate at 4.25 percent following its last two board meets in February and March.
It is likely that more rate reductions will dominate RBA's rate policies this year, economists said, as the global economic situation is expected to tighten further.
Australia, according to Swan, would be in a better position to face economic challenges once its economic programs get underway, foremost of which is the planned mining tax that the Labor-led government said will deliver some $11 billion to the national coffers over the near-term once it becomes operational.
And more revenues were expected to be extracted from the controversial levy over the long-term, Swan added.