UFC Fight Night 26, Shogun Rua vs. Chael Sonnen: Preview, Fight Analysis, Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Shogun Rua vs. Chael Sonnen features one of the best strikers in the light heavyweight division against arguably one of the best wrestlers in the league today. To be shown on Fox Sports 1 on August 17, the battle between these two top contenders would be fun to analyze and predict, as each has his own style and approach in fighting.
Sonnen loves to talk trash before each fight to hype things up and sell more Pay-Per-Views. Although this has been a common trend for most fighters, the good thing with "Uncle Chael" is he is the type who can back his words with great performance come fight night. Keep aside his last title fights against former middleweight champ Anderson Silva and light heavyweight king John Jones, Sonnen has done a pretty great job inside the UFC, having wins against top opponents like Michael Bisping, Brian Stann, Nate Marquardt and Yushin Okami.
The American uses a grinding wrestling style wherein he overwhelms opponents with continuous takedowns until he gets them into the ground. He actually has an accuracy of 59 percent in total takedowns in the UFC. More importantly, he has great top control and has an underrated submission game he can implement in the ground.
Rua on the other hand loves to let his hands do the talking inside the Octagon. Not fond of hyping fights with trash talks, the Brazilian has gained his share of fan base due to his diverse style of striking which is explosive and accurate (52 percent success rate in the UFC).
Shogun has enough torque in his punches to make the night short for every opponent he faces. In his 21 total MMA wins, 18 came via KO or TKO.
The result of the fight between Rua and Sonnen should be easily determined depending on where the fight goes. If it becomes a striking match, Sonnen has enough skills to hold on for a few minutes but when Rua connects, it will be a short night for the American. Thus, Sonnen should realize that standing with a striker as accurate as Rua will not be a good game plan for him.
Uncle Chael should make every effort to make his fight against Rua a wrestling match. The Brazilian has shown signs of fatigue in his previous fights when it comes to the later rounds. Sonnen should explore his opponent's weakness and build his game plan upon the premise that Rua will gas out eventually if he wrestle him consistently and he can attempt to submit him later on.
Meanwhile, Rua should take every opportunity he has on the feet to land combinations against Sonnen and try to knock him out as early as possible. The Brazilian will not have plenty of time standing during the fight, proven that his opponent has superb wrestling skills. He should maximize his time on the feet and probably time one of Sonnen's takedowns with knees or uppercuts. Nonetheless, I believe it would be hard for the Brazilian to counter Sonnen's double legs.
My prediction: Sonnen wins via unanimous decision.