Westpac says economy could hit a snag in 2011 but growth is also a possibility
Next year's initial growth figures could give out strong indicators for the Australian economy yet the numbers could prove a bit anaemic from earlier projections.
According to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index data released on Wednesday, the Australian economy's annualised growth rate in September stood at 4.6 percent, which is more than a full-point ahead from the long-term economic trend of 3.1 percent.
However, the new index pointed to a marked retreat from the high of 10.3 percent seen in March earlier this year and gravely indicated that economic activities in the country could suffer a slow down over the next three to nine months ahead.
That trend, according to the latest Westpac-MI data, could possibly extend right into the first six months of 2011, ominously predicting of a below-average movement of the economy at the closing stage of the current financial year.
Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan cautioned that while the numbers remain afloat from the average trend and it would stay in the same area for the remaining months of 2010, the index "could easily see the growth rate drop further in the near term to a below average pace."
Mr Hassan blamed domestic indicators for the decline seen in the growth rate for the past few months as he cited that from the index' standing of 9.8 percent in April domestic components have since then conspired to pull down the numbers by up to 75 percent.
During that span, Westpac said that home loan approvals, overtime work and productivity saw falling trends by up to 1.3 percentage points.
Despite the gloomy economic prospect, Westpac is convinced that a cash rate hike would be implemented anew by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after it has completely absorbed the repercussions of the lift that was decided for November.
Mr Hassan said that the new upward movement in the country's interest rates could come around the second half of 2011 as he argued that a December hike would be too remote considering the steep rate movements being adopted by Australia's major banks.
The RBA has indicated on its board meeting minutes released on Tuesday that it decided to lift the cash rate from 4.25 percent to 4.75 percent to establish an economic cushion that would absorb the anticipated surge of medium-term inflation.