Why Boston Will Beat Golden State

A postseason that has been filled with one-sided games should be much different in the championship round. The Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics are set to meet in a 2022 NBA Finals matchup that could easily go either way.

Golden State is a slight betting favorite before Game 1, but it would be hard to say that either team has much of an edge. The Warriors have the championship experience with three rings since 2015. The Celtics have young, two-way stars who are more than ready for their first NBA Finals appearance.

Boston finally got over the hump, defeating the Miami Heat in a seven-game Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics won the East for the first time in 12 years, despite making four trips to the conference finals in the last six seasons.

The Warriors are making their sixth NBA Finals appearance in the last eight seasons. While two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant is no longer on the team, Golden State’s core from its first trip to the NBA Finals in 2015 remains intact. Head coach Steve Kerr is still on the bench. Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are all seeking their fourth title.

At times during the 2022 playoffs, the Warriors have looked unstoppable on offensive, going on runs reminiscent of their championship teams. Golden State’s 116.1 offensive rating is the best of any team this postseason. Boston has a 111.8 offensive rating in the playoffs.

Curry has seven 30-point games in the 2022 playoffs. The Warriors are shooting 37.9% from three-point range, including Thompson’s 39.9% from behind the arc.

Thompson’s effectiveness could swing multiple games in the series. The sharpshooter has been up and down after missing 2.5 seasons with serious injuries. Thompson was 7-of-24 from three in the Western Conference Finals before exploding with eight threes in the series clincher against the Dallas Mavericks.

Without Thompson playing at an All-NBA level, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins have made up the difference. Poole is averaging 18.4 points on 53.1% shooting. Wiggins has been an important part of Golden State’s defensive effort. Kevon Looney also had a big series against Dallas and is averaging 12.5 rebounds in his last six games.

Golden State had the NBA’s second-best defense during the regular season. Boston ranked first, and the Celtics’ defensive rating is six points better than the Warriors’ rating in the playoffs. Boston held Miami under 97 points in three of the last four games.

Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart defends Curry about as well as any player in the league. Robert Williams emerged as an elite rim protector to become an All-Defensive Second Team selection. It will be key for both players to recover from injuries that limited them at times in the conference finals.

All seven Celtics’ players who are averaging more than 20 minutes per game are above-average defenders. Because of their ability to play both ends, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown give Boston the NBA’s best pair of wings. They are averaging a combined 49.9 points on 36.4 field-goal attempts per game.

Boston’s ability to switch on defense makes it a difficult matchup for Golden State. Since the 2014-2015 season, the Celtics are the only team that has a winning record against the Warriors.

The teams split their two regular-season meetings this year. Boston has beaten Golden State seven times in their last 10 matchups.

Golden State didn’t have much trouble against the Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, two teams that are centered on one superstar. The Warriors’ were nearly pushed to a Game 7 by the Memphis Grizzlies after Ja Morant was injured and no one player dominated the ball.

Tatum is Boston's best player, but the Celtics are at their best when the ball is moving. Tatum's usage rate of 29.1% in the playoffs is well below that of Luka Doncic (39.65%) and Nikola Jokic (35.8%)

The Warriors have home-court advantage, but winning at Chase Center might not be a problem for Boston. The Celtics staved off elimination in the second round with a Game 6 victory in Milwaukee. Boston eliminated the Brooklyn Nets on the road and won Game 7 in Miami.

If the 2022 NBA Finals come down to one game in Golden State, the Celtics’ defense could end up determining which team wins the championship.

NBA Finals Prediction: Celtics in seven

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