Will the New RBA Rate Cut Save the Aussie Christmas?
The cash rate push back decided by the central bank on Tuesday would certainly lift some pressures off consumers' shoulders, possibly fueling more shopping activities but not enough for retailers to celebrate a glorious Christmas season.
Analysts said that by placing the interest rate level at 4.25 percent yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) practically provided a lifeline for many borrowers who are poised to benefit from the move by paying less on their loans in the months ahead.
According to Business Day, the 25 basis point reduction should deliver savings of $47 to an average Australian servicing a $300,000 loan but most of the benefits stop there, at least in the near term.
While the cut throws a blanket of protection for consumers and businesses alike, retailers are not too upbeat and feel that the RBA may have acted a bit late in providing an environment that would have saved their Christmas, economists said.
The past six months for retailers have been both daunting and challenging, industry players said and to hope for a miracle way into the second week of December is praying for the impossible, according to Tim Rocks of Merrill Lynch.
"There is no material pick-up in freight at all that has come through since the middle of the year ... and there is no real indicator telling us that Christmas this year is going to be any better than Christmas last year," Rocks was quoted by Business Day in lamenting that the rate cut came some a months late.
What the retail sector looks forward now is the development for the first half of 2012, which could be the period that global economies worsen and lead to recessions - a spectre that experts said would not spare even Australia.
Recession, Rocks said, would force companies to cut down their expenses and as many as 100,000 jobs could be lost by March.
"I don't think there is much (the RBA) can do to make things better for the first half of next year ... but it can work really hard and rescue Christmas 2012," Rocks stressed.
The latest RBA move, ANZ economist Katie Dean, would do little wonders for the retail industry as consumers are more likely to hold on to their savings rather going into shopping binges.
"I'm sure some of it will be spent but I would say a very good portion of it, perhaps the majority, would probably be used in savings or paying down debt," Dean told Business Day.
On his part, Myer chief Bernie Brookes said that the new rate cut should encourage banks to pass on the benefits to consumers, if only to boost their confidence, go out and spend some money.
That picture, Brookes added, should spur more actions in the sector that currently experiences its worst trading condition over the past 50 years.