World Bank Slashes India’s Forecast For 2013, Sees Better Growth Next Year
The World Bank has cut its forecast for India's economic growth from 6.1 percent to 4.7 percent in this fiscal year, citing a sharp slowdown in manufacturing and high interest rates as the key factors driving down investment.
In its India Development Update report released on Wednesday, the bank warned that "high headline inflation, an elevated current account deficit, and rising pressure on fiscal balances from the depreciation of the rupee" continued to be major risks for the Indian economy.
Additionally, the bank highlighted that while they had expected an acceleration in India's growth six months ago, a pick-up in domestic activity had not materialise, weakening the nation's growth prospects.
Nevertheless, the rupee's recent plunge against the dollar has made India's exchange rate "more competitive than the developing country average", giving the nation's exports a chance to outperform emerging market rivals, said Martin Rama, the bank's chief South Asia economist, as cited by AFP.
"We remain upbeat on growth potential," Rama told a news conference on Wednesday.
Last week, the IMF also slashed its growth forecast for India to 3.8 percent, inciting criticism from the Indian government who described the projections as "overly pessimistic."
The World Bank's forecast of 4.7 percent however is broadly in line with many private economists; and will please the Indian government more, especially as it attempts to turn the economy around ahead of polls due by next May.
The World Bank expects India's economic growth to pick up in the 2014-15 financial year to 6.2 percent. Rama said that his organization had "a positive outlook (for India) growing forward", due to low core inflation, an expected bumper farm crop, stronger exports and the government's stepped-up commitment to economic reforms.
On Tuesday, India's central bank chief Rahuram Rajan also expressed optimism for India's growth prospects next year.
Speaking to an academic audience at the Harvard Business School in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Rajan highlighted that about half of the $115 billion in previously stalled projects had now been cleared, while a good monsoon season is expected to also bolster agricultural production.
"The effects of that clearance will show up toward the end of the year. So growth will start picking up because these large projects will start coming back onstream," said Rajan, as cited by the Indian Express.
"The second piece of good news is the monsoon has been very good ... with a bountiful harvest, and with the associated activities like animal husbandry, poultry, also picking up, you can see a lot more value in the rural areas, which will help sentiment and growth," he said.