Apple will announce its earnings this Tuesday and results will depend largely on China, according to analysts. However, things are not looking up as KGI's Ming-Chi Kuo predicts iPhone 6s sales to be not as merry as the iPhone 6 these holidays. Is Apple in a bind?

Analysts seem to agree on one thing ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report: iPhone 6s will not deliver the same sales figures as the iPhone 6.

"The evidence thus far suggesting that demand for iPhone 6s is not as frothy as last year is tough to ignore," said Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Chris Caso in a note. Caso reduced his estimates on the iPhone fourth quarter sales from 79 million to 74 million units.

KGI Securities analyst Kuo is in agreement. Kuo, who has a proven track record on Apple predictions, said in his forecast that 70-75 million iPhone units will be shipped in Q1 2016 of the fiscal year. Apple Watch will ship around 3.5-4 million units. The estimated shipments cover regions such as the U.S., Australia, Canada and Europe among others.

"We estimate iPhone shipments rose 2.1 percent QoQ and 23.6 percent YoY to 48.5mn units in 3Q15, of which 20-22mn units were iPhone 6s. We attribute the solid YoY growth to the inclusion of China as the first-launch market for iPhone 6s and to increased output of the new model (versus 14-15mn units of iPhone 6 in 3Q14)." Kuo said in a note obtained by MacRumors.

"However, as we do not expect overall demand for iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than that for iPhone 6, we expect shipments momentum could gradually decline in 4Q15-1Q16F on a YoY basis. We expect iPhone may see its first YoY shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016."

CNN reported that Apple's performance will depend largely on China as it accounts for nearly 30 percent of the company's sales. China has overtaken Europe to become Apple's biggest market. However, given China's recent economic woes, Apple may have a problem just like other big consumer companies. It also does not help that the country's stock remains extremely volatile.

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