Australia Dollar Outlook 07/26/2011
Australia: While the US may not default, it now looks as though it's highly likely that it will lose its AAA credit rating as the Republicans and the Democrats continue to disagree on how to overcome the debt problems in the region. As a result, US and European equity markets were weaker overnight.
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The DOW closed down 0.7% and the S&P 500 down 0.6% regaining some ground after opening almost 1% lower. Yesterday in our local region saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data which is seen as a pre-cursor to the expected inflation in the region and thus the upcoming CPI result.
In the June quarter the index rose 0.8%; extremely close to the markets expectation of a 0.7% increase. This is compared to a 1.2% rise experienced in the March quarter. The annual rise was 3.4% compared to expectations of 3%. While the result was slightly higher than the markets were expecting, it's unlikely to force the RBA's hand at the
next interest rate meeting. Today we will be closely watching a speech by the RBA's Governor Glen Stevens for indications as to how the RBA are currently placed
Majors: As mentioned above, the two political parties are yet to come to an agreement on the US debt ceiling. A resolution needs to be reached prior to this time next week (Aug 2) for the country to escape default. President Obama will be making a speech at 11am AEST regarding the impasse, with markets playing close attention to what he says. The main beneficiary of the current stalemate in the US is the Swiss Franc (CHF) which is being bought up as a safe haven asset.
The USD hit an all-time low against the CHF which continues the record-setting ascent for the CHF against the USD. In the past year the CHF has risen 30% against the USD, as it moves away from just a neutral commodity, to be viewed as one of safe haven.
Just in July the CHF against the USD has increased 4%. With the EUR losing its sheen due to their sovereign debt issues, and the USD no longer a strong investment, it seems that the CHF is the next best thing. Switzerland has a large current-account surplus and isn't reliant on outsider creditors, it is seen as fiscally more stable than countries like the US who rely of foreign investment to lend money.
Economic Calendar
Aust RBA Governor Speech
NZ Trade Balance
US New Home Sales
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
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