Australian dollar outlook 05/04/2011
The Australian Dollar has opened slightly weaker this morning at USD 1.0840 after seeing some profit taking by investors yesterday.
Australia: The RBA’s Statement yesterday saw a change in the Board’s rhetoric, moving from a no case for a rate change in April to now assessing “carefully the evolving outlook for growth and inflation”. The Central Bank kept the official cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. The RBA Statement said the “CPI inflation will be close to target over the year ahead” and that “longer term inflation can be expected to increase somewhat if economic conditions evolve broadly as expected” with respected analysts of the view that a rate hike can be expected in the September quarter, driven by ongoing strength in the labour, market with the unemployment rate pushing down to a low 4.5%.
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Furthermore, will a hike be part of a sequence or more of a one off as part of a measured approach to tackle inflation in the
medium to long term. The AUD’s retreat yesterday and overnight was mostly driven by a stronger US Dollar, with gold weaker by 1.1% to US$1,540 per oz and oil at US$111.05 per bbl (down 2.2%). The markets are seeing a lot of exporter interest near USD1.0800 as many remain uncovered and concerned about the possibility of USD1.1500 levels later this year. Today sees the release of the April Services PMI and March HIA new home sales being released in Australia.
Majors: US equity markets finished lower overnight as some disappointing earning results weighed on the market. The Dow finished flat while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished down 0.3% & 0.8% respectively. European equities fell in a broad retreat but the EUR held firm against the USD ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. The hawkish bias is expected to be maintained, amid suggestions that rates will be 2% by year-end. Portugal has allegedly reached agreement with the EU and IMF on the terms of its bail out loan. Tonight there are services indices released in the US and Europe while the US also has ADP Employment for Apri,l where an increase of 193k is expected
.
Economic Calendar
AUS HIA New Home Sales Mar
EU Euro-zone Retail Sales Mar
US ADP Employment Change Apr
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