Australian Dollar Outlook - 10/07/2011
Bell FX Currency Outlook
The Australian dollar has opened firmer this morning, after improved investor risk appetite and gains across global equity markets boosted the AUD during the offshore session.
Australia: The AUD is currently trading at USD0.9730 as markets begin to take some comfort that a co-ordinated effort will be made to stabilise the euro-zone debt issues. Overnight both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) left their official cash rates unchanged at 0.5% and 1.5% respectively.
While there were no rate cuts, both central banks took further steps to support their banking system and economies.
The BoE announced that it would boost its asset purchase program from GBP200bn to GBP275bn as the BoE Governor said that "the UK is in the middle of a serious crisis" and that "inflation may slow sharply in 2012".
ECB President Trichet announced that it will extend its liquidity support forEuro-zone banks through Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO's) and a EUR40bn covered bond program. Locally, there is no top tier data due out today; therefore we expect that AUD to track the equity markets closely ahead of tonight's important US payrolls data.
Majors: As mentioned above, offshore equity market rallied overnight with UK and European markets finishing up between 3 and 4%, while in the US markets finished 1.7 - 2% higher. On the data front, the US released its initial jobless claims report, which posted a better than expected rise of 6k for the week ending September 30.
Base metals rose overnight with copper up 5.9% to US$7,225 per tonne, its largest one day gain since
2010, which assisted in supporting the AUD. Nickel rose 3.0%, aluminium gained 2.7% and zinc also posted gain of 1.25%. Gold ended the session higher as well, to be trading at US$1,650.95 an ounce, while oil finished
up 3.7% at US$82.62 a barrel. Tonight in the US will see the release of the non-farm payrolls, with the market expecting the private sector to add 90k, and the public sector to show a decrease of 35k jobs.
Economic Calendar
07 OCT JN BOJ Target Rate
UK PPI Input / Output SEPT
US Change in Non-farm Payrolls SEPT
US Unemployment Rate SEPT
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