Australian dollar outlook 31/1/2011
Australia: The Australian dollar has opened trade todayaround the 0.9900 level as events in the Middle Eastdominated the news in financial markets.
Continuedunrest in Egypt and protests over the President Mubarak'sdictatorial ways overshadowed all markets and reversedthe positive tone set after the US GDP figure wasreleased.
GDP for Q4 saw the US economy grow 3.2%which was slightly below the expectations of 3.5% butstronger than the previous quarter of 2.6%.
The AUDtraded into the high 0.9900's before risk aversion took holdof the markets and pushed all equity indices down and theAUD went with it as well.
Oil rose over 4% to over US$89a barrel as concerns grew that oil supplies from the MiddleEast might be affected since Egypt controls the SuezCanal through which much of the oil passes. Gold roseU$22 an ounce to US$1,337 after several weeks of steadydeclines.
Equity markets in the US were down by 1.4%(Dow) to 2.5% (NASDAQ) after all European indices fell aswell.
Majors: Effects of the floods in Australia are still beingassessed but the ultimate decline in GDP in the short runmay be as low as 0.25%.
Today private sector growth forDecember is to be released with a small increase of 0.2%expected. Inflation number for January are also out todayfollowed tomorrow by the RBA's decision on interest rates.
The market expects no change in the cash rate. With theUS calling for Egypt to transition on an orderly basis to amore democratic government all eyes will be on the nextmove in Egypt and other countries in the Middle East thatmay see more unrest, which began several weeks agowith protests in Tunisia.
These events took some of thepositive gloss off the US Q4 numbers that sawconsumption increase by 4.4% from 2.4%, the most in 4years and a surge in exports and a decline of 13.6% inimports, much of which is due to the weaker USD.
Withthe USD stronger due to safe haven demand, all the majorcurrencies against the USD are subdued and the AUDcross rates are softer.