Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian dollar has bounced from the low USD1.0500's yesterday to open in the mid USD1.0600's this morning after more than 80% of the private sector Greek bondholders have accepted to swap their holdings.

Australia: Yesterday's local unemployment numbers fell by 15.4k in February, all of which was due to a fall in part time employment. This indicates that the underlying trend in employment growth remains weak. Only a reduction in the participation rate has contained the unemployment rate at 5.2%. Some economists are indicating that the data again brings the RBA's focus to an interest rate cut in May. Today we will see trade data for January where the market expects a lower surplus of $1.450bn as compared to December's surplus of $1.709bn. At midday, China CPI and PPI will be released as well.

Majors: Overnight, the Greek bond swap deal was said to be "going well". Reports of acceptance of the deal varied, but the financial markets were generally more buoyant with all major share indices up. LME prices improved with the gains on the equity markets; April gold futures are trading up US$17.10 at US$1,701 an ounce and copper up US$35 trading at US$8,330 a tonne. The oil price was a little stronger at US $106.7 a barrel with the USD generally weaker across the board as the EUR moved higher. German industrial output data added to the positive tone of the equity markets with the data showing a stronger than expected increase.

The Bank of England also left cash rates on hold and did not alter their bond purchasing plans. The Bank of Canada left their cash rates on hold at 1%, still a record lows. US jobless claims data was released overnight and were 10k higher than expected. Tonight we see the release of the non-farm payroll numbers. The expectation is for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.3%. If the figures are better than projected, we could see a further rise in equity markets and the AUD.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
9 MAR AU Trade Balance JAN

CH Industrial Production FEB

UK Manufacturing Production JAN

US Change in Non-farm payrolls FEB