Australian Dollar Outlook 5/26/2011
Australia: The AUD is facing competing forces at the moment, with our relatively high interest rate yield and strong commodity prices providing solid support, but on the flip side nervousness over the outlook for global growth and European debt concerns is preventing the AUD rallying back towards the recent highs around USD1.1000.
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Local markets will be watching the release of Q1 CAPEX data due out later this morning as it may influence the outlook for future RBA interest rate hikes.
The data is expected to reinforce the view of an emerging "two-speed" economy, with mining investment expected to be strong and non-mining sector investment to be very subdued.
With solid exporter and speculative bids emerging sub the USD1.0500 level expect the AUD to remain relatively well supported on any dips until or if there are any further negative developments in relation to the Greek debt crisis.
Majors: Financial markets were relatively quiet overnight with no new news to provide any solid direction.
Equity and commodity markets recorded some modest gains despite US durable goods orders coming in weaker than expected in April.
The OECD released their latest Economic Outlook, leaving growth forecasts largely unchanged but revising inflationary forecasts to slightly higher levels.
It is the OECD's opinion that there is a "strong case" for the US Federal Reserve to hike US official interest rates before the end of this year.
The EUR remains strong despite what appears to be a deteriorating situation in Greece.
ECB officials continue to talk tough on inflation, suggesting European interest rates will rise again soon and the EUR will maintain its interest rate yield advantage over the USD.
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