Australian Dollar Outlook 5/27/2011
Australia: Yesterday's strong capital expenditure numbers took the market by surprise and once again had market bulls pricing in a rate hike by the RBA in the next few months.
The AUD traded from around USD1.0550 to USD1.0590 after the data, which showed new private capital expenditure rose 3.4% in real terms in the March quarter.
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The median market forecast was for a rise of 2.9% in the quarter. The AUD remained supported throughout the offshore session despite negative news out of Europe.
Disappointing US data also helped to support the AUD, while a strong finish in US equity markets saw the AUD comfortably trade above USD1.0600. In the absence of any data being released today, the AUD is likely to consolidate its gains and wait for further news out of Europe.
Majors: Negative news flow out of Europe and disappointing US economic data made for a mixed session for the majors Thursday night.
The EUR seemed to be able to hang onto the USD1.4100 level, while the USD was lower against most of its major rivals.
GDP data in the US showed that the economy grew at a tepid 1.8% pace in the first three months of the year, while US jobless claims rose by 424,000 more than economist anticipated.
Markets remained on edge about developments in Europe after Euro-group President Jean Claude Juncker said Greece may be denied the next tranche of financial aid if an audit of its budget accounting shows that the country cannot guarantee financing for the next 12 months.
His comments undercut recent efforts of Germany and the ECB, which have tried to play down any talk that Greece will have to restructure.
The market will continue to monitor talk out of Europe to see if Greece will receive next month's tranche of IMF funding.
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