Australian Dollar Outlook 6/01/2011
Australia: The AUD traded to a high of USD 1.0757 early yesterday with selling evident all afternoon following the release of the weaker than expected economic data.
The Australian Current Account deficit widened to A$10.45bn in Q1 2011 as the Queensland floods resulted in coal export volumes collapsing 27% in the quarter.
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A fall was expected, but not this significant. Subsequently, analysts have lowered today's GDP forecasts to a fall of 1.1% for Q1.
This is due for release at 11.30am. Also released yesterday was the RBA credit data for April, which was flat. Building approvals for April fell 1.3% and the house price index fell 0.1% for April.
Given the weaker than expected data releases of late, the market has priced out a rate hike by the RBA next week.
Base metals had a positive night after being closed the previous day with nickel up 2.2%, aluminium up 1.9% and copper higher by 0.2%.
Gold finished fairly unchanged trading at US$1536.30 an ounce and oil was up 2.2% at US$102.77 a barrel. The GDP release is key and we expect the AUD to react accordingly with our forecast range as noted on today's report.
Majors: Overnight saw US & European equity markets finish firmer with the Dow up 1%, the S&P500 up 1.1% while London was up 0.9%, Paris 1.6% and Germany 1.9%.
Markets were buoyed by comments from Jean-Claude Junker, Head of the Euro Group's Finance, who stated a "total restructuring" of Greek debt was not required and that decisions on further aid would be made by the end of June.
Data released in the US was weaker than expected with the US Chicago PMI for May reporting a fall to 56.6 from 67.6 while the Dallas Fed Index fell to -7.4 from 10.5.
Data out of Europe saw the release of the Euro-zone CPI fall to 2.7% from 2.8% for May, easing concerns of another rate hike by the ECB.
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