Australian Dollar Outlook 6/15/2011
Australia: There was stronger sentiment last night in stock markets with the Dow up 1% and similar gains across Europe.
Chinese data was better than expected, despite confirming what most think, in that the Chinese economy is slowing.
The Shanghai market was assisted by this news, and China again raised the bank Reserve Ratio by 50bp's to 21.5% following the last increase of 50bp's in mid May.
China's focus on dealing with inflationary pressures is clear and the economy seems to be responding as hoped for. Stronger data out of the US gave markets a boost in commodities, energy and minerals, which boosted our AUD. Yesterday's NAB Business Survey was weak.
Business conditions and confidence were just below and close to long term averages respectively with mining strong but manufacturing and retail, as expected, fairly horrendous.
This would surely put paid to any likelihood of rate hikes in July which takes away one of the ingredients for a higher AUD. Reserve bank Governor Stevens speaks at 1pm AEST on Economic Conditions and Prospects and there is the release of Westpac's Leading Index, Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Inflation Expectations.
After last night's gains, we expect the AUD to pause today at these levels, unless there are serious surprises on
the upside in today's local data releases.
Majors: Whilst the AUD gained ground, EUR/USD pushed higher for the same reasons before Greece's debt concerns dampened activity and more talk emerged regarding problems in Portugal and even Belgium.
GBP/USD was higher on the back of May's CPI, which was smack on expectations of 4.5% yoy growth. USD/JPY staged a modest rally.
Fed Chair Bernanke said the debt ceiling is the "wrong tool" for fiscal restraint, as well as stating "we should avoid unnecessary actions or threats that risk shaking the confidence of investors in the ability and willingness in the US Government to pay its bills".
Another 24 hours in the global financial markets full of intrigue awaits.
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