Australian Dollar Outlook 6/27/2011
Australia: Although the IMF and the EU approved the Greek government austerity package last week, the hard work remains to be done, with the Greek Parliament having to pass the measures when they vote on it, on Wednesday and Thursday this week.
Passage is by no means certain and equity markets reflected this pessimism with major European and American indices falling again, although the FTSE bucked the trend and finished slightly higher on Friday.
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Gold continued to fall finishing at US$1502 an ounce on Friday. In the US durable goods order for May were better than expected rising by 1.9% against an expectation of 1.5%.
This included some large civilian aircraft orders which skewed the result and the net effect was slightly lower than anticipated.
Data to be released this week is fairly light on, with US existing homes sales for May on Wednesday followed by local private sector credit growth on Thursday and Chinese PMI data on Friday.
We expect the AUD to trade in the fairly tight range of 1.0425 to 1.0650 this week but developments in Greece are still the wild card in all of this, and support levels may be tested.
Majors: The famous investor George Soros weighed into the mire of the Greek crisis saying that it was probably inevitable some countries would leave the EUR at some point in the future, and that we could be on the eve of a financial collapse.
Italian banks were also the focus of some attention since their capital positions are considered to be inadequate in light of the Greek crisis but also in the context of higher capital levels being required of all major banks worldwide.
We expect to see the EUR/USD to be volatile this week as news comes out on the machinations of the Greek Parliament mid-week.
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