Australian Dollar Outlook 6/28/2011
Australia: A stronger USD and a drop in commodity prices during the offshore session saw the AUD fall to a low of USD1.0391; its lowest level since April 12.
As has been experienced in recent weeks, any dip in the AUD has been bought up with a large amount of exporter interest, and today is no different with the AUD now back around yesterday's levels.
US equity markets were stronger, with the banks leading the way as the Bank of International Settlements announced that the new global capital regulation proposals weren't as harsh as first thought.
This, as well as the positive news out of Greece helped the AUD strengthen late in the session as riskier assets were in demand.
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A lack of local data releases today will see the AUD in a fairly tight trading range, and continued to follow the leads from offshore. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle is speaking in Sydney, but it is unlikely that anything said will have much influence on the market.
Majors: Developments offshore in relation to the Greek debt crisis seem to be moving in a positive direction with France putting forward a plan overnight.
It is believed that under the plan, which was drafted by French banks and insurers, private creditors will roll over as much as EUR30mio worth of Greek government bonds that become due by 2014.
It will also see the proceeds from maturing Greek bonds to be re-invested into 30year Greek bonds.
While this is purely is replacing debt with debt and only gives Greece more time, it is a positive step.
This has given the markets some confidence, with the hope that the Greek parliament, who meet on Wednesday, will vote in favour of the tight austerity package being proposed.
Data released out of the US overnight has continued to cause concern for the manufacturing sector, with the Dallas Fed Index falling well below the market expectations.
The index came in at -17.5, compared to the market expectations of -3.5. With the poor manufacturing data that we have seen released in the US in recent times, this result doesn't bode well for Friday's key ISM manufacturing survey.
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