Australian Dollar Outlook 7/27/2011
Australia: The continued weakness in the Greenback was the theme overnight and led to the AUD trade above USD 1.0950 as the markets contemplate the unthinkable that the US default could occur.
[Kick off your trading day with Global Markets Daily]
What seems more likely than this unimaginable result is any deal will be insufficient to stave off a downgrade from at least one of the ratings agencies.
The USD will continue to be undermined during this period of uncertainty.
Yesterday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens delivered a fairly neutral speech, which focussed on the feeling that Australian household balance sheets have been repaired.
He further added the negative view on the retail sector seems a bit excessive (try telling that to retailers, especially small to medium sized).
He touched on the slowdown in China being mild and stated the obvious that the US debt ceiling concerns remain a big concern.
There was no indication on monetary policy, though today's CPI data will provide a clue on the next move by the RBA.
Most analysts still believe the headline rate for the June quarter CPI will be ~0.8%, while the core reading will remain the key focus for the RBA.
A core reading of 0.9% or higher will most likely give the RBA more pressure to raise rates while the current global conditions will provide the Board some room to wait and evaluate the impacts on the Australian economy.
Base metals edged firmer overnight with copper up 1.7%, nickel 1.3% and aluminium 1.3%.
Gold edged higher to be trading at US$ 1,619.00 an ounce while oil futures finished up 0.45 at US$ 99.59 a barrel.
AUD has had a run in recent trading sessions, and we don't see much of a change to these levels today.
Majors: As the US Democrats and Republicans appear no closer to coming to an agreement on the US debt limit investors seem losing confidence in the Greenback as a reserve currency.
While a deal is likely to be done the chance of the US seeing a rate increase this year does seem out of the question and likely to continue to keep the US dollar weak for the near term.
On the data front the state of the US housing market continues to remain soft with the Case-Shiller home price index remained unchanged in May.
The US consumer Confidence for July rose slightly to 59.5 from 57.6. Wait for more potential weakness in the Greenback tonight unless real progress is made in Washington.
More from IBT Markets:
Follow us on Facebook.
Follow us on Twitter.
Subscribe to get this delivered to your inbox daily