Bushfire in Tasmania expected to double by 2100 if carbon emissions continue at current rate

A new report analysing the bushfire conditions in Tasmania has predicted that the fire rate will double up by 2100 if nothing is done to lower the current level of carbon emissions.

The report, called The Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), further says that if carbon emission continue to happen at the current rate, the Tasmanian bushfire season would begin a month earlier and cover twice the area affected.

ACE CRC official Tony Worby says that the bushfire danger is expected to increase by 10 percent per decade in this century.

"Perhaps most concerning, areas that are at greatest risk now of bushfires are likely to be the areas of even more increased risk in the future, so those areas a likely to get worse more rapidly," he said.

The report is based on the new global climate models and predicts worst-case scenarios up until 2100. The fire danger in Tasmania has steadily increased over the last few years and the report suggests that it will further increase because of climate change.

Even after taking into account the recent Paris climate change agreement calculations into consideration, Worby believes that there will be a 1.5 degree Celsius to 2C increase over pre-industrial levels.

Worby further said that depending on global emissions, some of the worst outcomes might have been missed by the report right now. But, there is no doubt about the increasing bushfire risk in a number of parts of Tasmania in the coming decades.

The researchers are hopeful that the Paris deal will help build a future that moves toward lower emissions more quickly than otherwise expected, reports ABC Online.

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