Can You Be Hit By Falling ROSAT? Officials Estimate a 1-in-2000 Chance
The German Roentgen Satellite or ROSAT is expected to fall to Earth this week and German space officials said that there is a 1 in 2,000 chance that a piece of the dead satellite could hit someone on Earth.
This is higher than the 1 in 3,200 chance of a debris hit that NASA gave for the UARS satellite fall, however, officials said that a serious injury from such an event remains extremely remote.
According to Jan Woerner, head of the executive board of the Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), the 2.4 metric ton X-ray space laboratory is expected to break up as it travels through Earth's atmosphere, but some large pieces will likely make it through the intense heat of re-entry.
This is approximately 1.7 metric ton of satellite debris, consisting primarily of 30 large glass and ceramic fragments. "We don't expect big parts to re-enter, except the mirror and the glass and ceramic parts," said Woerner.
While German aerospace officials are actively tracking ROSAT, they will not be able to determine precisely when and where the satellite will fall until roughly two hours before it impacts Earth. According to their findings, ROSAT's orbit extends from the latitudes of 53 degrees north and south, which essentially covers a huge swath of the planet.
This means the satellite could fall anywhere stretching from Canada to South America, the report said.
The dead satellite was projected to fall to Earth in November, but new studies show that the spacecraft will likely make its fiery descent through the atmosphere later this week which is earlier than mission controllers previously thought.
ROSAT was launched in June 1990 as a joint venture between Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom but this was permanently decommissioned in February 1999. Since the satellite does not have a propulsion system and there is no fuel left onboard, the satellite will make an uncontrolled return to Earth.