Australian exporters and importers foresee the local unit to hold above parity with the greenback for most of the first quarter of next year, a report says.

The Commonwealth Bank Aussie Dollar Barometer shows importers and exporters expect the AUD/USD to lift and remain over 1 US dollar over the next year. The average expectation among the survey respondents for AUD/USD at the end of March 2011 is 1.08 US dollars.

By contrast, CBA forecasts for the AUD/USD are not as optimistic. The bank expects AUD/USD to increase to around 1.02 US dollars in March 2011.

Most businesses expect to raise their AUD/USD exposure in the next three months. Increase in currency exposure is an indicator of future business expansion.

The expected rise in AUD/USD exposures revealed in the Barometer coupled with typical volatility in foreign exchange markets makes managing foreign exchange exposure important. Just over half of businesses plan to hedge their exposure to AUD/USD in the next three months.

Businesses have responded to the spike in AUD/USD volatility experienced in 2010 by steadily increasing currency hedging. More than half (52 per cent) of businesses are now planning to hedge their AUD/USD exposures compared to 46 per cent of businesses in the April Barometer. Also, a greater proportion of exposures will be hedged (65 per cent in October compared to 60 per cent in April).

The report reveals significant variation in plans to hedge currency exposure between industries. For instance, 85 per cent of primary producers (farmers and miners) plan to use currency hedging to manage their currency risk in the next three months. At the other end of the spectrum, only 38 per cent of businesses involved in 'producer services' (communications, finance and property) plan to use currency hedging in the next three months.

Based on the Aussie Dollar Barometer results, CBA believes importers are leaving themselves exposed to the risk of higher costs.

"Importers are working on the assumption of ongoing increases in AUD/USD over the next year. Importers exposure to AUD/USD is rising but importers plan to hedge only a small proportion of their exposure," the bank said.