Daily Dollar Forecast 05/29/2012
Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar spiked upon opening yesterday morning after Greek Poll results showed The Nation’s pro-austerity parties gained ground. Jumping one full US Cent the Australian dollar traded to an overnight high of 0.9883 against its US Counterpart, an impressive advance given the higher yielding asset had tested the 97 US Cents handle late last week. Given US Markets remained closed for the Memorial Day long weekend early gains well consolidated across European Markets with Euro stocks erasing gains despite the very real fears which exist within the Spanish Banking system. Opening this morning at a rate of 0.9851 against the Greenback, investors remain cautious with risk appetite likely to be largely dictated by a further focus on Greece ahead of Retails Sales which are due for release locally tomorrow
We expect a range today of 0.9780 – 0.9890
New Zealand Dollar
Hopes that Greece will avoid a euro-exit were given a healthy boost yesterday after polls showed the nation’s pro-bailout party gained ground. Providing such much needed relief for the currency deemed riskier in nature the New Zealand dollar immediately gapped higher upon open yesterday, trading to a later afternoon high of 0.7645 against its US Counterpart. Emphasising how vulnerable the New Zealand unit remains to any news-flows out of Greece and broader Europe, questions as to whether the move higher is a short-lived one will surely be answered this evening where US Markets are set to again re-open following a long weekend. Despite the positive flows out of Greece, global markets remain a very volatile place further compounded by the stresses currently being seen within Spain’s banking system. Meanwhile this morning the Kiwi opens well up from yesterdays open as it currently buys 76.06 US Cents
We expect a range today of 0.7550 – 0.7660
Great British Pound
In a relatively subdued day of trading for the Great British Pound the Sterling has managed to bounce between losses and gains over much of the past 24 hours as investors searched for direction. Despite the Greenback losing as much as half a cent against the majority of its trading partners the move did little support a rally in the Sterling as it struggled to reach an overnight high of 1.5716 against its US Counterpart. With Greece again stealing the limelight overnight, short to medium direction for the Sterling is likely to be dominated by ongoing concerns over Spain’s growing unemployment and spiralling debt levels as well as Thursday’s Irish vote on a referendum to accept the European Union’s Stability. Opening this morning at a very similar level to where we opened yesterday the Sterling is currently swapping hands at a rate of 1.5678, whilst a quick look at the cross reveals a weaker Pound against both the Aussie (1.5910) and the Kiwi (2.0604)
We expect a range today of 1.5850 – 1.5970
Majors:
European Stocks were little changed overnight despite Greek opinion polls which eased concerns that a euro-exit was imminent. Leading to a surge in borrowing costs, shares in Bankia Group, one of Spain’s largest lenders dropped 13 percent after it was announced the bank would seek 19 billion in state funds. The interested slant of the market was that the rally created by Greek wires easily out stripped concerns over Spain as volumes remained light given US Markets were closed as a result of the Memorial Day long weekend. In an overall mixed session for global markets the 17-Nation Euro struggled to keep its head above water as it traded from an earlier high of 1.2623 against its US Counterpart to reach an eventual low of 1.2524. Opening weaker this morning at a rate of 1.2540, a move below 1.25 could lead to a further gap lower to a congested area of 1.2370/90. In what is shaping up as monumental week across markets, investors remain cautious ahead of US Unemployment, GDP as well as Friday’s European PMI releases.
Data releases
AUD:
HIA New Home Sales m/m
NZD: No Data Today
JPY:
Unemployment Rate, Household spending y/y, Retail Sales y/y
GBP: CBI Realized Sales
EUR:
German Import Prices m/m, German Prelim CPI m/m
USD:
CB Consumer Confidence