Australian Dollar: Early yesterday the Aussie looked set for another uneventful day however it was soon to prove us wrong. After settling at a morning low of 1.0390 it soon shot above the 1.0400 handle as it was announced Chinese Manufacturing PMI, although still contractionary, was much better than feared.

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A reading of 49.8 meant the Aussie rallied to 1.0450 initially and was to make further gains from the words of RBA deputy Governor Ric Battellino. Battellino made it clear the RBA believes the strength of the Australian Dollar is appropriate according to the current terms of trade and high commodity prices. He also added that the central bank did not intend to intervene in the currency markets. Any such hidden fears were subsequently thrown out the window by investors and the Aussie continued to rally to opening levels this morning of 1.0520/30.

We expect a range today of 1.0450 – 1.0550

New Zealand Dollar: With yesterday’s inflation expectations barely creating a ripple in the New Zealand Dollar, the commodity currency has had no choice other than to look to global risk sentiment and the Greenback for direction. Lucky for it, Chinese PMI came in better than expected and for a nation so dependent on the health of the Chinese economy this could only mean one thing.

Rallying from morning lows of 0.8215 the Kiwi has pushed through to 0.8330 by early Europe and with speculation continuing Bernanke may announce QE3 on Friday it didn’t stop there. Reaching a high of 0.8360, it opens this morning just shy at 0.8350 ahead of local Trade Balance data due out this morning. Despite some recent strength in the Aussie as well, the Kiwi has managed to still post some gains on the cross rate as well, which opens at 0.7945.

We expect a range today of 0.8290 – 0.8370

Great British Pound: With its own economic problems seeming to take a backseat, Sterling is being provided a great deal of relief in the weakness in the US Dollar and recent flows into riskier assets. Strong than expected data from the world’s biggest emerging economy, China, as well as bets being placed on QE3 helped the Pound rally to an intraday high of 1.6570.

Unable to hold onto these gains Cable has settled back down around 1.6490 which is still a touch higher than this time yesterday. With the Australian and the New Zealand Dollars being the main beneficiaries of yesterday’s movements Sterling was always going to struggle to hold recent levels. Subsequently we open this morning at 1.5670 against the Aussie and 1.9770 against the Kiwi.

We expect a range today of 1.5620 – 1.5730

Majors: The greenback has weakened in a move towards riskier assets as investors place bets the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will indicate further steps to aid the ailing US economy, namely a third round of quantitative easing. Markets are somewhat on hold in the lead up to the keynote speech the Chairman is due to give on Friday however the possibility further liquidity being injected into the market is certainly placing some downward pressure on the Greenback.

Also contributing to the fall is a drop in US New Home Sales, falling to 298,000 for the month of July, down from 300K in June. The Euro pushed through to almost break 1.4500 against the struggling US Dollar, also being helped by overall better than expected Services and Manufacturing PMI from the local region. Many are finding it difficult to shake the black cloud still hanging over Europe and after the German Zew survey for Economic Sentiment came in considerably worse than expected the Euro shed most of its earlier gains. Finding support t 1.4380 the shared currency opens higher at 1.4430 and the Yen, in absence of any word from the Bank of Japan, finds itself relatively unchanged at 76.70.

Data releases

AUD: CB Leading Index m/m; Construction Work Done q/q

NZD: Trade Balance

JPY: No data due for release

GBP: No data due for release

EUR: German Ifo Business Climate; Industrial New Orders m/m ;Belgium NBB Business Climate;

USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m; Crude Oil Inventories