Australian Dollar
Recent risk appetite has cooled slightly so far this week, pulling the Australian dollar lower to its weakest level against the Greenback in over a month. A cooling in commodity prices, growth concerns from China and nerves ahead of a big September for the euro-zone has left little reason to assume further risk ahead of the month’s end later this week. Unable to remain above immediate support at 1.0380, the Aussie now sits at 1.0360 and unless sentiment reverses, lows of 1.0200/20 are potentially in sight. New home sales are scheduled on the local economic calendar this morning although the next major data release for the Aussie doesn’t come until Thursday when building approvals and private capital expenditure are both listed.

We expect a range today of 1.0320 – 1.0420

New Zealand Dollar
The markets are looking a little lost and directionless ahead of a key meeting later this week where US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke heads the speaker’s list and is predicted to talk somewhat about monetary policy. Risk that Bernanke will only talk in general terms has got those short Greenback nervous and currencies such as the Kiwi have lost ground as some of these positions are unwound. Dropping below 81 cents the New Zealand dollar trades just above 0.8080 this morning ahead of what is likely to be a relatively quiet day in the absence of any key economic data. Trade against the Australian dollar was also quiet with the cross rate trading in a narrow 40 point range for most of Monday; the Kiwi marginally ahead this morning the pair change hands at 1.2815 (0.7803).

We expect a range today of 0.8020 – 0.8110

Great British Pound
A bank holiday in the United Kingdom kept markets quiet on Monday and the British Pound followed general market trend and drifted lower against the Greenback. Falling away from highs above 1.5800, the Pound found support at 1.5785 and trades just above here at time of writing. Today the schedule looks light for Sterling with no real key releases due at all this week; the nationwide house price index will be published over the next few days however the main driver for sterling will likely remain with euro-zone and US sentiment. Trade on the antipodean crosses fell marginally in the Pound’s favour, the GBP/AUD currently at 1.5230 and GBP/NZD at 1.9530.

We expect a range today of 1.5170 – 1.5300

Majors
There is little new to take away from the first 24 hours of this week, except that ahead of Jackson Hole at the end of this week and ahead of an eventful September for the euro, markets have shed a little risk and bought back ever-so marginally in the Greenback. Gains in the Greenback should be limited in the short-term as markets will be wary of the Economic Symposium set to get underway this Thursday; following the recent headlines relating to central bank willingness to embark on further stimulus many will be nervous further discussion will only create downside risk for the US Dollar. Trading up near 78.75 against the Japanese Yen and pushing the Euro dollar down below 1.2500, consumer confidence figures will likely be the big ticket item for the Greenback over the course of today; the EUR/USD will be watched to see if it can hold above 1.2480 or if it will look to drift lower, towards levels near 1.2200/1.2300 seen only earlier this month.

Data releases:

AUD: HIA New Home Sales m/m

NZD: No data due for release

JPY: No data due for release

GBP: No data due for release

EUR: GfK German Consumer Climate; M3 Money Supply y/y

USD: CB Consumer Confidence; S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y