Daily Forex Forecast 01/05/2012
Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar has decoupled from the Euro in the past 24 hours, holding its own above 1.0300 against the Greenback as the shared currency fell to support near 1.2900. In a session absent from local data, the Australian Dollar continues to take it lead from equity and commodity prices and as European banks found themselves back in the spotlight for less than desirable reasons the impact on European markets pulled the Aussie lower towards 1.0300.
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Moving into North American trade, another set of positive numbers from the world’s largest economy placated the US markets and in turn kept overall risk sentiment supported and the Aussie pushed back through to 1.0360. Also forging new all time highs against the Euro, the cross rate sits this morning at 0.8010 ahead of local Trade Balance figures due for release this morning.
We expect a range today of 1.0310 – 1.0420
New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar has risen to five month highs against the Euro as debt worries once again shroud the region. Rising to 0.6090, the Kiwi also held on to most of Tuesday’s gains against the Greenback as positive US data kept risk sentiment supported, despite the resurfacing of European woes. Drifting lower from session highs around 79 cents the local unit still trades around 0.7870 in a week absent of any local data. Key for the Kiwi this week will be this Friday’s non-farm payrolls from the US and general risk appetite. Losing some ground against the Aussie it has fallen through short-term support and trades this morning at 0.7600.
We expect a range today of 0.7820 – 0.7910
Great British Pound
The Great British Pound has risen against the Euro Dollar for the first time in three days, pushing to its highest level in 15 months as concerns mount for the region’s debt crisis. Rising to levels near 0.8265 (1.2099) the Pound also held for the most part above 1.5600 against the Greenback as positive US factory orders kept risk sentiment supported despite European concerns. On a local front Construction PMI rose to 53.2 in December and Sterling rose to highs of 1.5660 off the back of this news, later settling around 1.5620 where we open this morning. On the cross rates, the Pound opens slightly lower against the Aussie at 1.5060 and marginally higher against the Kiwi at 1.9820.
We expect a range today of 1.4990 – 1.5130
Majors
The Euro has pared Tuesday’s gains as concerns for the region’s debt crisis resurfaced overnight. Italy’s biggest bank, UniCredit, proved to be the main catalyst after it announced it would sell 7.5 billion euros in shares at a heavy discount in order to boost their capital reserves. News reports also surfaced that the Spanish government assisted the Valencia region in an overdue payment to Deutche Bank AG; both headlines causing the Euro to slip decisively below 1.3000 to find support near the 1.2900 handle. On the flipside, the United States posted a solid 1.8% increase in Factory Orders for the month of November and these ongoing positive fundamentals in the US have helped support risk sentiment overall. The Euro opens this morning off session lows at 1.2935 and the safe haven pair, USD/JPY, trades at familiar levels around 76.70.
Data releases:
AUD: AIG Services Index; Trade Balance
NZD: No data due for release
JPY: Monetary Base y/y
GBP: Services PMI; BOE Credit Conditions Survey
EUR: Industrial New Orders m/m; PPI m/m
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; Unemployment Claims; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI