Daily Forex Forecast 01/10/2012
Australian Dollar
Hopes that a November rate cut would spur Consumers into further spending measures were dashed yesterday when Retail Sales for the month came in well below expectation, showing a turnover of Zero Percent, well short of the forecasted figure of 0.6 percent. Dampening local sentiment, investors moved away from the Australian Dollar throughout intraday trade, dragging the Nations currency to a late afternoon low of 1.0144 against its US Counterpart. As the Aussie moved into offshore trade however earlier losses were erased with US Stocks advancing before the start of earnings season. In an overall mixed session for the higher-yielding currency the Australian Dollar appears well supported around the 1.02 Level, opening slightly stronger this morning at a rate of 1.0236.
We expect a range today of 1.0150 – 1.0280
New Zealand Dollar
In Statistics released yesterday New Zealand’s Trade Balance widened in November, as official figures showed an overall trade deficit of $308 Million which was slightly larger than the expected reading of $280 Million. Following the release, the New Zealand Dollar remained quite subdued for much of the local session remaining range-bound ahead of what proved to be an evening of substantial gains for the Kiwi. Having started the day at a rate of 0.7793 against its US Counterpart, investors snapped up the local Unit driving it to an overnight high of 0.7876. Opening this morning around 70 basis points stronger at a rate of 0.7875 short-term directions are most likely to be dictated by offshore events particularly the ongoing Policy discussions out of Europe.
We expect a range today of 0.7810 – 0.7920
Great British Pound
The Great British Pound followed local equities lower yesterday trading as low as 1.5395 against its US Counterpart. With the FTSE 100 falling 0.7 percent, UK Stocks managed to lose ground for the third time in four days. As the Sterling continues to fall victim of European Debt-Crisis Concerns, attention is likely to return to domestic happenings this week, with a wide range of data releases expected, highlighted by an Interest Rate decision on Thursday. Despite a mixed session for the Sterling, earlier losses were reversed late in the day as the Great British Pounds opens at a very similar rate to where we saw it yesterday, currently swapping hands at a rate of 1.5452 against its US Counterpart.
We expect a range today of 1.5040– 1.5180
Majors
In a meeting held in Brussels overnight German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy signalled that Euro-area Leaders may complete their new budget rulebook a month early by the 30th of January. Whilst discussions did stem from previous EU Summit talks of increased fiscal unity, the latest meeting has again done little to provide any substantial direction for investors. In currency movements overnight the EURO did recover well from the jitters seen earlier in the week, trading as high as 1.2784 against its US Counterpart, opening this morning around 80 basis points stronger at a rate of 1.2762. Whilst in Europe, in what is shaping up as an eventful week for the EURO-Zone an interest rate decision is expected out of the ECB on Thursday where new President Mario Draghi has signalled a willingness to become even more expansionary towards Monetary Policy moving forward. In news flows out of the US, Consumer Credit for the month of November surged to its highest level in almost a decade, showing households are optimistic to take on increased debt levels. With US Fundamentals continuing their recent strength, the Dow Jones rallied 0.3 percent overnight ahead of the earning season due to commence this evening. Meanwhile this morning the US Dollar opens relatively flat against the Japanese Yen at a rate 76.850
Data releases
AUD:
Building Approvals m/m
NZD: Building Consents m/m
JPY:
No Data Today
GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
EUR:
French Industrial Production m/m
USD:
IBD/TIPPP Economic Optimism, Wholesale Inventories m/m, FOMC Member Williams Speak, FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks