Daily Forex Forecast 01/22/2012
Australian Dollar:
The Australian dollar has maintained its recent ranges against its US Counterpart in what has been a lacklustre session. In the absence of any local data markets in the United States also remained closed for a public holiday. Bouncing from lows of 1.0490, the Aussie dollar was unable to recover from the half a cent worth of losses accumulated last week. Remaining firm this morning at 1.0515 all eyes will be on the Bank of Japan this morning where investors are hopeful the Central the Bank will meet expectations by setting an inflationary target at 2 percent whilst rolling out additional stimulus in excess of 10 trillion Yen. Whilst the net effect of such announcements should be an Aussie Dollar positive the higher yielding asset still appears heavy on approaches towards its four month peak of 1.0600.
We expect a range today of 1.0470 – 1.0550
New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar has remained firm against its US Counterpart over the early parts of this week as investors wait with baited breathe to see whether the Bank of Japan will roll out the desired level of stimulus. With the market’s direction so greatly influenced by the potential change in Monetary Policy in Japan, investors have essentially taken some mild profits whilst generally waiting on the sidelines leading up to this key risk event. Recovering from earlier lows of 0.8332 the Kiwi opens unchanged this morning, buying 83.58 US Cents.
We expect a range today of 0.8320 – 0.8390
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound continued its recent sell off yesterday dropping as low of 1.5804 when compared against the Greenback. Still reeling from a host of alarming economic releases last week, most notably a poor retail reading, fears that Britain’s economy may be headed for another recession have contributed greatly to the weakness in the Sterling with preliminary GDP figures due to be released at the back end of this week. Opening weaker this morning against the Greenback (1.5828), the Aussie (1.5048) and the Kiwi (1.8930), all eyes will be on the BOJ over the coming hours.
We expect a range today of 1.5010 – 1.5080
Majors:
In a quiet session overnight European finance ministers met in Brussels for the first time this year to discuss the debt crisis. Whilst discussions are likely to focus on the European Stability Mechanism and how it can bypass individual governments to provide cash directly to the banks, the establishment of centralised banking unit remains key for the 17-nation group. Gaining slightly against its US Counterpart the Euro has maintained levels in excess of the 1.33 mark overnight, opening this morning at 1.3314. On the horizon this evening key economic sentiment readings out of Germany will be the pick of data releases. Outside of Europe, the main talking point for the best part of the past week has surrounded the BOJ, which are expected to meet today. Whilst investors are hopeful of additional stimulus measures being adopted, if expectations are met this would result in further weakness for the Japanese Yen although viewed as a positive for the broader global market given what a sustained economic recovery would mean to nations linked to the major export destination. Gaining 0.2 percent the Yen is stronger this morning at 89.72
Data releases
AUD:
No data today
NZD: No data today
JPY:
Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight call rate, BOJ Press Conference
GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations
EUR:
ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Spanish HPI q/q
USD:
Richmond Manufacturing Index